According to a survey a week and a half before the state elections in Hesse, the CDU is still ahead. According to a representative survey by infratest dimap on behalf of ARD, the Christian Democrats came to 31 percent. The Greens followed at a considerable distance with 17 percent.

Both parties received an unchanged result in the so-called Sunday question compared to a survey at the beginning of September. In comparison, the SPD lost two percentage points and fell to 16 percent. The AfD also performed two percentage points worse at 15 percent.

For the representative pre-election survey, the opinion research institute surveyed 1,515 eligible voters in Hesse from Monday to Wednesday of this week.

FDP and Left close to the five percent hurdle

According to the survey, the FDP can have hopes of returning to the Wiesbaden parliament with a current vote of 6 percent (1). At four percent (1), however, the Left would currently remain below the five percent threshold and would no longer be represented in the Hesse parliament after 15 years. The Free Voters would also get 4 percent (1).

A new state parliament will be elected in Hesse on October 8th. The country is currently governed by a coalition of the CDU and the Greens. According to the election survey, both a continuation of the current coalition and a coalition between the CDU and SPD would be possible. A new edition of black-green would currently have the most supporters at 31 percent, but is viewed critically by a majority (63 percent). One in four people said they were positive about black and red. 67 percent would find this coalition less good or bad.

According to the survey, if those eligible to vote in Hesse could elect their Prime Minister directly, Hessians would currently be more likely to rely on the Christian Democrat Boris Rhein (35 percent) than on the Green Tarek Al-Wazir (19 percent) or the Social Democrat Nancy Faeser (14 percent).

Election surveys are generally subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data they collect. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.