A week and a half before the state elections in Bavaria, a new survey has largely confirmed the current mood in the political landscape. When asked what voting decision they would make if there were a state election this Sunday, 36 percent of those surveyed answered CSU. In the ARD pre-election survey, Prime Minister Markus Söder’s party was unable to improve on the so-called Sunday question compared to the last BayernTrend at the beginning of September and is just below its result from the 2018 state election (37.2 percent).

According to the survey, Economics Minister Hubert Aiwanger’s Free Voters, who co-govern as junior partners in the coalition, come to 16 percent. They lost one point compared to the most recent BayernTrend, but are clearly above the result from 2018 (11.6 percent).

Three-way battle for second place

The Free Voters are engaged in a three-way battle with the Greens and AfD for second place in Bavaria. According to the ARD pre-election survey, the Greens achieved 15 percent and thus remained constant compared to the beginning of September. Compared to the 2018 state election, this result would mean they would lose 2.6 points. The AfD would get 14 percent, one point better than at the beginning of September and significantly better than in 2018 (10.2 percent). The SPD remains constant at 9 percent, slightly weaker than in 2018 (9.7). With only 4 percent, the FDP would no longer be represented in the state parliament. However, the Free Democrats have gained one point in the past few weeks and are now only slightly behind their 2018 result (5.1 percent).

For the representative ARD pre-election survey, the opinion research institute infratest dimap surveyed 1,512 eligible voters in Bavaria from Monday to Wednesday of this week. The range of fluctuation was given as two to three percentage points.

Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.

In the survey, 50 percent said they were satisfied with the work of Prime Minister Markus Söder. 51 percent consider a continuation of the current government coalition of CSU and Free Voters to be the best option.