Consider that the political situation of Latin America will be marked by uncertainty and expected by the factor of surprise is not risky, to the extent that at this point in the past year, little is known, for example, of the existence of John Guaidó in Venezuela and los hervideros popular convulsionaron many countries were far from even being a possibility. The still uncertain consequences of this shaking will be a determining factor in overhauling the political that is taking place in the region in the past two years, with more than a dozen elections, including the major powers, and countless Parliaments fragmented —with the exception of the absolute power of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico— and the forecast of the united nations agency under the UN) that the septennium 2014-2020 will be less economic growth in the last 40 years.
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ideologically, the triumph of Alberto Fernandez in Argentina; the release of Lula da Silva, in Brazil; the defeat of the uribismo in the local elections of Colombia and the protests against Sebastian Piñera in Chile, have given a truce to the progressive forces of the region, after the victories of conservatives in Brazil, Colombia or Chile, and the authoritarian excesses of Venezuela and Nicaragua. After a boot of the century marked by the hegemony of the so-called socialism of the XXI century, the pendulum between the forces of progressive and conservative remains for the first time balanced in a year that are only provided for presidential elections in the Dominican Republic and Bolivia.
Venezuela, a focus of tension
Venezuela will presumably be again the focus of increased tension in the region. In the country where I gave the impression that everything was going to change with the emergence of John Guaidó, nothing has changed. At least at the political level: the economic situation remains critical, despite the dollarization, which provides a lifeline to the more well-to-do; migration has no brake —close to five million people have left the country. Not to change the clash between Nicolas Maduro and Juan Guaidó. The first has managed to hunker down in power after a year of upheaval and the expectations generated by the president of the National Assembly, recognized as the representative acting for more than 60 countries, have been diluted, as his figure has been damaged, not only within Venezuela; the international community juggles to deal with the Maduro administration, without this implying a weakening of Guaidó.
The next Monday will be the first litmus test for the young leader of venezuela, 36 years. That day shall endorse his post as maximum leader of the National Assembly. Chavez, who came back this year to the Parliament of most opposition, he has deployed in recent weeks an offensive to try to undermine the supports of Guaidó to try to bribe several leaders opponents to change their vote. The National Assembly is, from late 2015, in the hands of the opposition, so that Guaidó account, a priori, with sufficient support, but at least thirty deputies are in exile and dozens threatened.
from the beginning of next week will open a new stage —another more— in Venezuela. Chavismo is decided to convene legislative elections, which would be this year. Not a few think that the set at the start of the year to put in stocks at the opposition. A sector of the critics of Maduro maintains that the conditions for an electoral process clean, as already defended in may of 2018 in the presidential election that was imposed Ripe and which were not recognized by the vast majority of the opposition or the international community. However, there are large groups of leaders opponents —some of them have been advocated in the last year to Guaidó— who believe they can’t afford not to come to the hypothetical appointment. In the closest environment to the president of the Parliament, saved caution and not rule out another scenario, election or re-intensify the fighting.
The crisis in Venezuela transcends to the caribbean country and will, surely, again the whole region. In part diplomatic, many eyes pointing to Mexico, which this year will serve as the chair of the temporary Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac), the organism that lived its best days under the umbrella of Hugo Chávez and Lula da Silva and now, the Government of Lopez Obrador wants to re-launch, in part as a counterweight to the Organization of American States (OAS), to that seen with suspicion by the leading role of its secretary general, Luis Almagro.
Distrust in Mexico
The diplomacy mexican, warm in the venezuelan case, has given in recent months, a step to the front, especially with the crisis in Bolivia by the resignation, after pressure from the military, of Evo Morales, whom López Obrador asiló in your country before this could be installed in Argentina. At the internal level, the second power of the region faces a year marked by economic uncertainty, after entering by the minimum in recession. The consolidation of the new trade agreement with the united States and Canada is the main asset to achieve something of oxygen of Lopez Obrador, who maintains broad popular support, according to all the polls, but it still does not generate confidence in the business world in order to relaunch the country’s finances and be able to undertake his ambitious social agenda.
The economy will be determinant also in the first year of the Government of Alberto Fernandez in Argentina, the other power that, like Mexico, has decided to turn to the left, forming a theoretical axis progressive that is still far from materialize on the paper. At least for now, has emerged as a counterweight to the great economy of Latin America, Brazil, governed by the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro, who has not yet been able to realize his great reforms. The municipal elections in October will be a barometer to measure the wear of Bolsonaro two years of his triumph and the support you can to retain the Workers ‘ Party of Lula da Silva, after leaving the former prison.
The thermometer on the strength of the hot spring popular, it will be Chile and Colombia, where the protests are still alive, especially against the mandate of Sebastián Piñera. In the case of colombia, joins the pressure to Ivan Duke to consolidate the peace agreements with the FARC and halt the advance of paramilitarism in the country. The continuity of the pressure or the revenues it may derive sorted out the strength of the social movements of Latin america and the ability of the leadership of the policiescos, that is, the level of governance in one of the regions most restless.
Brazil 2020: how to calibrate the economic reforms so as not to create discontent
The great dilemma that is faced in this 2020, the president of Brazil, the former captain Jair Bolsonaro, 64 years, is how to calibrate the reforms to liberalize the economy, in a way that will boost the growth but still affected, or not too many. The Government wants to avoid that light the fuse of discontent citizen that so much damage comes from causing the rest of the continent and, simultaneously, to provide the electorate enough tangible gains for the bolsonarismo makes a good role in the municipal elections, ahead of the presidential elections of 2022.
it Is a major challenge. Because the mirror chile which looked at the far-right and its minister ultra-liberal minister of Economy to undertake deep economic reforms has been broken by blow of street protest. Before or after Bolsonaro must decide whether to rescue the reforms of tax and of the public role of the drawer in which you put at the end of November. It is likely that the dismantling of the political, cultural and environmental to proceed -except that the external pressure is prevented – and that the conservative agenda come to the Congress.
The released Lula da Silva, 74 years of age, shall, unless surprise, one of the protagonists of the electoral campaign. But, convicted for corruption, is in the hands of the justice of the decision that may override the veto today to be a candidate.
Bolsonaro is also faced with challenges in their own playing field: to maintain a certain cohesion in a Cabinet that includes groups, often warring among themselves, and to give body to the party that has just founded, the Alliance for Brazil, in time for the October elections. The training is now little more than a short manifesto that expresses the ideology-nationalist, extreme right, christian, and populist president.
This will have an eye on the research on the greatest of his sons, senator Flavius, suspected of embezzlement and money laundering. An Achilles ‘ heel.
Another dilemma that awaits you is the bidding of the network of G5, which is scheduled for this year. The pressure of Washington to the chinese company Huawei is excluded is immense. Bolsonaro will have to choose between upsetting his admired Donald Trump, or to Beijing, his first business partner, who tried to kick up from the Chair he saw with clarity that give back to China would be catastrophic for the economy. Or maybe looking for an excuse to delay the tender to 2021.
