The carnet de bal of Mark Rutte was quickly filled. The Dutch Prime minister will be received in turn Emmanuel Macron (23 June) and Giuseppe Conte (10 July). Today, it is the turn of Pedro Sanchez (Spain) and Antonio Costa (Portugal), while he himself travelled to Berlin, to visit Angela Merkel on Friday 11 July. The preparations for the european summit of the end of the week build for the leader of the so-called ” frugal “, submitted to intense pressure from Paris, Berlin, and of the Latins to agree to the european recovery plan of 750 billion euros.
With Storytelling, the discussions were frank. The president of the Italian Council gives a guarantee of reforms and has made known to those that it intends to introduce in its national plan of recovery that declined over three years, including a new “decree of simplification” (174 pages) to eradicate the bureaucracy, a reduction in VAT (which would cost between 4 billion and 6 billion euros) to revive the consumption, the funding of 500 MBA to help women to become business executives… Mark Rutte refuses to tell, and that he demanded guarantees : in other words, a strict control of the money of the stimulus funds by the european Council with unanimity voting on each payment. A control too close to Conte, who does not want to relive the experience of hell by the Greeks with the troika. The two men have shared a tiramisu in an Italian restaurant in the historic centre of The Hague, Impero romano… “there is no convergence to full, but differences can be overcome,” concluded Conte after this appointment.
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Mark Rutte must take into account a ground of parliamentary complicated, but it can not be deaf to the calls of his employers, worried that the EU reenergizes its single market, the source of the wealth of the Dutch. The Italian employers (Confindustria) and the board of the netherlands (VNO-NCW) have also split a joint communiqué following the visit of the fairy Tale to Rutte for their support, ” Next Generation EU “, the name by which the recovery plan has been decked out by the european Commission. “We support solidarity in the form of grants and loans which will help regions and sectors that need it most, on the condition that the budgetary responsibility to be fully engaged,” write the ceos of the two countries.
For Kurz, Italy can borrow only at a good market
Precisely, on the point of friction between loans and grants, Austria has taken a step. On Sunday, the chancellor Sebastian Kurz, hitherto hostile to any grant, granted a long interview to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in which he opens the door. “We uphold the principle of “ready for loans”, he recalls, that is to say that the money that the EU subscribed as a loan must be mainly transmitted as a loan. I am in favor of an overall balance between loans and grants and that the grants do not increase immeasurably. It should not be forgotten that the regular budget of the EU, with more than 1 000 billion euros, which is already a set of grants. “In sum, Austria is beginning to admit that the stimulus package may include grants, but not necessarily at the height of 500 billion euros, as foreseen in the “negotiation box” published on Friday by Charles Michel, the president of the Council. In short, the frugal understand that they can no longer oppose the grant ; they just try to get that the amount would be less high and severely box.
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the relevance of The 250 billion euros of loans is not clearly established. “The countries that are particularly affected, can also finance themselves in the capital markets on good terms, stressed Kurz. Italy pays less than 1.5 % interest on its government bonds, which is half of what Austria has done during the financial crisis. In addition, there is always the european stability Mechanism (€240 billion available to States to cover health-care costs, editor’s NOTE), which is far from being exhausted. “And for good reason, the Italy, who could receive 37 billion euros of loans via the ESM, does not wish for the time to dip into this fund. Giuseppe Conte adopts here a tactical position : it flunks the MY as long as it is not certain that the 750 billion of the stimulus funds are not guaranteed. In addition, the two parties in his coalition are divided on the issue : the Movement 5 stars rejects the ESM, the PD argues in favour of its use… But the ESM could not be used to cover expenses health in a broad sense. The social impact would probably be good, but it would not allow the restart of the economy transalpine. Tale keeps this option as a pear for the thirst…
Angela Merkel maneuver
In the end, the president of the Italian Council relies on the weight of Angela Merkel, ensuring that from 1 July the rotating presidency of the european Union. His magisterium, moral is great with frugal, of which she was a long time partner in crime. As the president Macron, she tries this bet tricky to combine generosity, support to the grants conditional on reforms without much complicate the payment of funds which, if they arrive too late, do not arroseraient that a field of ruins in Italy, Spain, France, Ireland, Bulgaria, etc., This is the whole edifice of european and the euro-zone that would be threatened.
The decision of 27 to adopt the recovery plan, backed by the MFF (eu budget for long-term), should not be too much delay because it has been ” anticipated by the markets “, stressed Christine Lagarde, the boss of the IMF, during the last european summit conference. If, at the end of July, the frugal block always, markets may revise their positions and the confidence in the european recovery would be significantly undermined. It is also with this concern for a reaction in the markets that the president Macron urged his friends frugal not to over-complicate the arrangement of multiple clauses. “It is progressing, but slowly “, says one in the entourage of the head of State. In addition, a little everywhere in Europe, the warning signs of an upsurge in cases of contamination arise, which could slow down the restart of the economy. If badly negotiated, the current figures of the recovery plan – a large loan of 750 billion euros to repay over thirty years – may prove to be insufficient…
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