After the 33rd matchday, four teams are still in danger of going into the second division. What are the chances of each club?

1. FC Köln (17th place/27 points/27:56 goals)

This speaks for Cologne: After the last-minute win against Union Berlin, 1. FC Cologne suddenly goes into the season finale with euphoria, where a win in Heidenheim is mandatory. Despite the worst starting position of all relegation candidates, people in Cologne still believe in their possibilities. Coach Timo Schultz is hoping for one of the “strangest relegations that has happened in a long time.”

This speaks against Cologne: In the fight for the better goal difference with Union Berlin, which is three points ahead of Cologne, the Rhinelanders cannot rely on their offensive strength. With only 27 goals this season so far, Cologne has the worst attack of all Bundesliga teams. In addition, Cologne may have to do without four players from the starting eleven against Heidenheim against Union. Luca Waldschmidt and Max Finkgräfe were injured, Benno Schmitz and Denis Huseinbasic saw their fifth yellow card and are suspended.

Union Berlin (16th place/30 points/31:57 goals)

That speaks for Berlin: 2:1 against RB Leipzig, 3:2 against VfL Bochum, 1:0 against Werder Bremen. Three years in a row, Union Berlin has always achieved a major goal with home wins on the last match day. It was about a place in the European Cup and not about relegation, but with the extraordinary backdrop in the stadium at the Alte Försterei, a lot is always possible. Interim coach Marco Grote will try to stir up exactly these emotions.

This speaks against Berlin: the magic is gone. Union Berlin is in an unbelievable negative spiral – even after the next coaching change. Seven goals conceded and zero points against direct competitors Cologne and Bochum. Seven games without a win. And the core competency of uncompromising, ironclad defense is long gone. Recently, even the most loyal fans on the forest side in the Alte Försterei stopped singing. The suspended leader Rani Khedira is also missing from the season finale against Freiburg.

FSV Mainz 05 (15th place/32 points/36:50 goals)

This speaks for Mainz: the starting position and the form of the team. Head coach Bo Henriksen’s team showed class in the confident 3-0 win against Borussia Dortmund. Three goals were scored in the first 23 minutes against the B team of the Champions League finalists. Mainz are unbeaten in eight Bundesliga games and benefit from key players such as Jonathan Burkardt and Leandro Barreiro, who are in top form at the crucial stage of the season.

That speaks against Mainz: Not much anymore. Under Henriksen, Mainz has developed into the strongest team in the bottom of the table and has gradually closed the gap on its rivals. The weakness away from home could be fatal for the 05ers. Mainz is the only team in the Bundesliga not to have won an away game. A defeat in Wolfsburg could still lead the Henriksen team into relegation.

VfL Bochum (14th place/33 points/41:70 goals)

That speaks for Bochum: Bochum has relegation in its own hands. Even a draw at Werder Bremen is certainly enough for at least another year of the Bundesliga. In addition, even if VfL loses, the competition from Berlin and Mainz would first have to deliver. “The situation is still good,” said midfielder Patrick Osterhage and announced: “Playing for a draw would be the wrong approach. We go into the game as normal and don’t think, hopefully we’ll take a point. That’s how we go into the game like we need three points.”

This speaks against Bochum: The bitter 0:5 against Leverkusen could cause a small emotional crisis. Bochum is also the second weakest team in the league on a foreign pitch. Only Mainz is behind the Revierclub in the away table.