There are seven reasons that his chances of getting the highest government office to destroy:
The government politicians benefit, first, of the crisis
. The government politician, Armin Laschet, Jens Spahn, and Markus Söder knew how to seize the opportunity and put themselves as the creators in the scene. Merz, the lawyer without a function in the party and state, acts like the Wallflowers of the Conservatives.
The state assumes a dominant role
Secondly. The state takes over in times of pandemic a dominant role. He nationalized companies, financed, subsidized and biased backstops on millions of workers. The Repertoire of the ordoliberal economic politician Merz, he courted once the car with the book title, “More freedom”, in the new situation, for many, is not liberating, but a threat.
The AfD’s promise seems to be reflected
submit Third. The strategic promise that he would call cause values in parts of the AfD’s electorate back to the Union, seems to be the choice of researchers refuted. The AfD voters had to choose in the present survey, is the Union of the CDU or CSU (see chart) and would – said Forsa chief Manfred Güllner – again in no-man’s land of Non-voters disappear as in the political middle return.
Steingart/Media Pioneer trust of the Germans in the institutions
Güllner wrote at the weekend in an analysis: “The data show that all of the AfD is a tendency for people – regardless of whether you Meuthen’- or ,Höcke/Kalbitz-bearing’ be expected to ,have a thorough radical right – wing and völkisches of the world. Unlike Merz believes, is not to win this homogeneous largely closed community of values for the CDU or CSU to.“
Green instead of AfD or FDP
Fourthly. is The dominant Partner of the Union after the forthcoming Federal election will in any case be the AfD or the FDP, but the Green. The most successful were coalition governments, but when it came to the political Pairing: Brandt/Scheel; Kohl/Genscher; Schröder/Fischer. A Cabinet of the antagonist, Friedrich Merz/ Anna Lena Baerbock – would be for anyone with a temptation. This doesn’t smell like a fresh start, but after a self-imposed blockade.
Steingart/Media Pioneer comparison of the current Sunday question and the Bundestag election in 2017
The Person
Gabor Steingart is one of the most famous journalists in the country. He is editor of the Newsletter “Steingarts Morning Briefing”. The eponymous Podcast is Germany’s leading Daily Podcast for politics and the economy. In the spring of 2020 Steingart moves in with his editorial on the editorial ship “Pioneer One”. Prior to founding Media Pioneer was Steingart Chairman of the Board of management of the Handelsblatt Media Group.
Be free Morning Briefing, you can find here: www.gaborsteingart.com
The industry wants now. Söder
Fifth within the economy, Merz loses its attractiveness. With topics such as tax reform, monetary stability and the lean state are important, but in the global competition, not more of the game. The new challenges for Germany are: Start-up-funding platform-the Economy, the electrification of the automobile, and Artificial intelligence. In the digital world, but the lawyer Merz is not a docile Apprentice, the great master.
it has Long been assumed with Christian Sewing (Deutsche Bank), Christian Klein (SAP), and Ola Källenius (Daimler), a almost the youth of grace at the end of generation of Managers, which sees Merz the lighthouse, but the rear light of a different time. Only 17 percent of German executives speak out for a candidate for Chancellor Merz. This is the result of a survey conducted by the opinion research Institute Civey under 1500 self-employed entrepreneurs, executives, employees and civil servants in the higher service on behalf of the “economic week”. One of Bavaria’s Prime Minister Söder is with 45 percent.
Steingart/Media Pioneer consent values for Union leaders in the Chancellor candidate question among managers in percent.
The Merz-clientele is not the problem zone of the CDU
Sixthly. The typical Merz clientele is as he is: male, a Christian and lives in the rural areas. The problems of the CDU but in the case of the Younger women, and in the cities. This means that The 64-Year-old reinforces the Strengths of the CDU, but does not help, new layers of voters to address. He is, to speak the hard words of the US campaign planner, a “one trick pony”.
Merz is a soloist, not a team player
seventh. Last, but not least: Merz is a soloist, not a team player. Beyond his office was the enemy of the country begins. All the eligible candidate for the CDU presidency and the chancellorship are United in the goal to want to avoid it. Armin has told Laschet him at a confidential Meeting at the industry Club of Düsseldorf, just as: “Friedrich, are you going to it in any case.”
conclusion: Even Merz has lost the intra-party competition, but the political Momentum. Once he went with the spirit of the time Arm-in-Arm, now strength is blowing in a Hurricane in the face. When the legendary entrepreneur Henry Ford was right with his observation – “success is to have exactly those skills that are in demand at the Moment.” – then Friedrich Merz currently has no opportunities.
The camp to the left of the middle Wake up,
The political competition on the left of the middle woke up. The left party, the social Democrats and the Green feel that in spite of the high demand for Merkel’s CDU, its own range of subjects before and in the Corona-crisis has made it more attractive: The belief in the State is increasing, the Rent cap is popular, the introduction of a wealth tax anyway. And given the trillion in debt in a new Era of distribution before the country allegedly fighting.
The “mirror” reported in its latest edition it credible that the leadership of the left party prepared in these papers a coalition government with the SPD and the Greens. Powerful state intervention and a significant policy of Redistribution from the top to the bottom, that would be, therefore, the contribution of the Left and social Democrats to a coalition government. The Green get a Green Deal would go far beyond the government decisions of the Grand coalition and beyond. All together would be determined against a AfD-leadership to occur, which has heated up in nationalism.
There are only a citizen of the SPD-candidate
missing playing The objective conditions, so the voters in the fall of 2021, are in the party guides better than ever. The double peak of the SPD is a poet moved to the left of the party as each of the SPD leadership before. The Green need to keep, for cultural reasons, every Option open. In the case of the left party, in turn, are due to the departure of Oskar Lafontaine and Sahra Wagenknecht of the Federal policy, the sign of reconciliation with the SPD.
only a commoner SPD Chancellor candidate of the election to the Bundestag elastic is Missing. The “mirror” describes the longings of the Greens, the left party, SPD and the the own editorial this way: “it is Precisely the pragmatist, Olaf Scholz, could help the links the project to the success, because he appeased the distrust in bourgeois circles.”
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