In the course of the affair surrounding their chairman Hubert Aiwanger, the free voters in Bavaria have increased significantly, according to a survey. According to a survey by the Insa Institute, they would now be chosen by 15 percent of those eligible to vote in Bavaria – four percentage points more than Insa last measured at the end of July, as reported by the “Bild” newspaper.

Prime Minister Markus Söder’s CSU loses a point four and a half weeks before the state election and comes to 37 percent. The Greens are also in the red: They lose one point and are now at 14 percent, level with the unchanged AfD. For the SPD it goes down two points to 9 percent. With four percent (minus 1), the FDP would no longer be represented in the state parliament after this intermediate result.

At the Forsa Institute, however, the free voters ranked a month ago, i.e. before the Aiwanger affair, at a similar level as now at Insa, namely at 14 percent.

Election polls are generally always subject to uncertainties. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it difficult for the opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a forecast of the outcome of the election.