Israel plans to expand its military offensive in the fight against Hamas to the city of Rafah. The city is located in the very south of the Gaza Strip, on the border with Egypt. People from the entire area have fled there; the region was previously considered comparatively safe from air and ground strikes. Now there are 1.4 million people here, which is more than half of Gaza’s population.
Rafah is also considered the last stronghold of the terrorist organization Hamas, which is in power in the enclave. It still holds 136 Israeli hostages captive. Army spokesman Arye Sharuz Shalicar says: “The only Hamas battalions that are still intact are mostly in the Rafah area.” According to the Israeli military, there are four Hamas brigades in Rafah that are to be fought.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the army to present a “combined plan to evacuate the population and destroy the Hamas battalions” in Rafah. The government says areas north of Rafah have already been cleared and can be used for civilian use. Army spokesman Shalicar said the area around al-Mawasi remains a safe zone where there will be no attacks.
However, there is no infrastructure in the coastal strip in the middle of Gaza and supplies from aid organizations are hardly possible there. Prime Minister Netanyahu told the US television station “ABC News” that the civilian population would be given a safe route out of the city. Like many international politicians, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was concerned about the planned offensive: Millions of people had sought protection from the fighting in a very small space and “could not disappear into thin air.” According to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry in Gaza, more than 25,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war. The information cannot be independently verified. The count does not distinguish between civilians and Hamas members.
The Rafah crossing is controlled by Hamas and Egyptian officials, not Israel. Despite the fighting, the crossing is still closed. Only a few hundred select foreign nationals and wounded Palestinians have been allowed to leave Gaza via the Rafah border since the war began. Because Egypt fears mass emigration, which would pose huge challenges for the country – how should the refugees be cared for and where should they be accommodated? Above all, the government in Cairo fears that many Palestinians want to stay in the country long-term – or that Israel will prevent them from returning.
Many refugees from Sudan already live in Egypt, and the country is economically struggling. There is also concern that terrorists will come to Egypt from Gaza. Egyptian authorities have long had a problem with jihadists in the north of the Sinai Peninsula. They are already finding it difficult to control the area, also because the number of Egyptian soldiers in the region is limited by the peace treaty with Israel.
If hundreds of thousands of people from the Gaza Strip come to Egypt indefinitely, the country would play a significant role in a possible permanent resettlement of Palestinians. A precedent would be created on the issue that has been causing conflict for decades and in which Egypt has so far refused to be involved. Israel’s other neighboring countries Jordan and Lebanon have taken in hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees during past wars – they are now no longer allowed to return to their places of origin. A temporary humanitarian measure for Palestinians could quickly become permanent for Egypt. The country has warned Israel that an attack on Rafah would jeopardize the Camp David peace agreement between the two countries.
Politicians like Annalena Baerbock are warning of a humanitarian catastrophe. Many civilians are already without stable accommodation and lack clean water, fuel and food. “We believe that a military operation at this time would be a catastrophe for these people,” said John Kirby, US National Security Council communications director. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell wrote on X: “An Israeli offensive on Rafah would mean an indescribable humanitarian catastrophe.” In addition, there would be “strong tensions with Egypt.”
Hamas threatens that it will stop negotiating the release of hostages if the Israeli army attacks Rafah. “Any Israeli ground offensive in Rafah on the Gaza border will destroy hostage exchange negotiations,” Hamas television station Aqsa Television quoted a senior Hamas leader as saying. Just a few days ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself rejected a deal in which Hamas demanded high compensation for the release of the hostages. The men, women and children have been in the hands of their captors since October 7 and are reportedly subjected to arbitrary violence. Army spokesman Arye Sharuz Shalicar told the Star: “As long as Hamas does not give in, the Israeli military will continue the fight every day.”
Israel’s military, together with the domestic intelligence service Shin Bet and the police, have now managed to rescue two hostages from captivity in Rafah. 60-year-old Fernando Simon Marman and 70-year-old Norberto Louis Har were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak on October 7th.
