Finland is about to change government. The Social Democrats of 37-year-old Prime Minister Sanna Marin were able to make gains in yesterday’s parliamentary elections – but they lost their position as the strongest parliamentary force to the conservative National Coalition Party of ex-Finance Minister Petteri Orpo. The right-wing populist party The Finns also overtook the Social Democrats. However, the looming change of power in Helsinki will no longer affect the country that borders Russia, which has already been decided to join NATO.
“Democracy has spoken,” Marin told party supporters late yesterday evening, when almost all the votes had already been counted. At the same time, she emphasized that the party at the head of government had received more support than in the previous election for the first time in a long time. In fact, the Social Democrats rose from 17.7 percent in the election four years ago to 19.9 percent now – but the other two major parties did even better, receiving 20.8 and 20.1 percent of the vote, respectively.
Orpo probably Marin’s successor
Orpo spoke of a “great victory” for his conservatives. As leader of the strongest party, the 53-year-old has the task of being the first to explore the possibilities of forming a new government. If he is successful, Orpo should become the new Prime Minister of Finland and thus Marin’s successor.
However, at least three parties are needed for a majority of the 200 seats in parliament – and such an alliance is not easy to forge. The Conservatives won 48 seats, the Finns 46, the Social Democrats 43. It is unclear which party Orpo will approach first. The 53-year-old has not ruled out the possibility of a coalition – unlike Marin, who, like other left-wing parties, had already made it clear during the election campaign that they were not going to do anything together with the Finns party.
NATO accession process underway
Marin has been Prime Minister of Finland since the end of 2019. She leads a five-party centre-left coalition and is regarded by many Finns as a modern and hard-hitting leader. Your government first led the northernmost country in the EU through the corona pandemic and then, together with President Sauli Niinistö, through the NATO accession process, which will soon be completed: All 30 alliance members have agreed to the admission of the Finns, and in a few days Finland will officially become the 31st member of the NATO defense alliance.
However, joining NATO played no role in the election campaign. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a broad, cross-party consensus has emerged among the Finns to support integration into the western defense alliance. The country had previously been divided on this issue for many years. Instead, the election campaign focused primarily on domestic issues such as the national budget. Marin’s opponents accused her of driving up the national debt.
