The economic crisis generated by the pandemic coronavirus is going to be tough. The authorities, bodies and financial statistics agree. In an interview with the regional press, while at the beginning of July, Emmanuel Macron insisted on this period of economic complex in which France is and will remain for a while. But, according to the notes published by the Insee on Wednesday 8 July, the decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) in French should be limited to 9 % for the year 2020. A forecast is somewhat more optimistic than that of the government which is counting on a collapse of 11 % of GDP, while the Bank of France predicted a 10% drop.
After a contraction of 5.3% in the first quarter and by 17% in the second due to the pandemic of sars coronavirus, the GDP rebondirait of 19 % in the third quarter and then 3% in the fourth, says the national Institute of statistics. This is the first forecast of growth of the Insee for the whole of 2020, as well as for the 3rd and 4th quarters. “Production prospects have to increase very significantly : the force of this rebound very much to the weakness of the starting point, that is to say, of the economic activity in the period of confinement,” according to the note.
steps to preserve the economic fabric
” However, the order books, in particular to the international, still considered to be poorly trimmed by the industrial companies, which bodes not of an immediate return to normal “, says the institute. Thanks to the measures taken during the eight weeks of confinement to preserve the economic fabric and employment, ” the first steps of the recovery could be climbed relatively quickly, perhaps more than expected.”
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” These are the last which are likely to be most difficult, especially the sectors most affected by the crisis “, is still in the custody of the Insee. The institute warns that its estimates are subject to ” many uncertainties, above all in the health situation in France and in the world “. It is the seventh note on the economic situation published by the Insee since 26 march. The next will be published on 23 July and 27 August.
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