less than a week of voting in the presidential election of america, the part seems to be played. Most national surveys give the democratic candidate, Joe Biden, an advance payment, which varies between 8 and 12 points. And the experts consider that, contrary to 2016, the gap to 7 days of the election is too important, even in the ” Swing States “, States the key, to that Trump can bridge the gap. Yet, since the debate of 23 October in which Trump has moderate its excesses usual, the rating national is slightly rising while that of his democratic opponent fell imperceptibly.
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The primary reason why the supporters of the outgoing president does not acknowledge that they are not defeated is the exceptional mobilization of an army of volunteers determined to force the victory. Even more important than the one that Obama, in his time, had gathered. They would be 2.5 million, 300 000 more than for the democratic candidate in 2008. The work of these volunteers : going door-to-door by making systematic visit to all those who, according to their lists, are listed as republicans and could be a reluctance at the time of the vote. (In the United States, although this is not mandatory, they declare for one party or another.) And volunteers for Trump have travelled all States in which the victory of walking away, even with a minimal, all of the major voters. In a single week, they announced 500 000 visits in the ” Swing States “. Even if the figure is inflated, the effort of the supporters of president is a reality. While the campaign Biden is very late in the canvassing of individual voters. A slower boot due to fears of the coronavirus, to which the democratic candidate, as we know, has shown infinitely more caution than his opponent.
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The position trench Biden on abortion could make him lose voters
If the second debate of the campaign remained hushed – and, indeed, quite boring – it has provided the opportunity for Joe Biden to clarify his position on two sensitive subjects. The first is abortion. The democratic candidate has clearly shown that, if the supreme Court, with the appointment of Amy Barrett, came on the stop of 2016, confirming a judgment of 1973, which reaffirms this possibility given to women, it would pass a law to reaffirm this right, or broaden the composition of the supreme Court to restore the balance of the old. Even if, to him, a practising catholic, is against abortion.
If this subject may seem almost digested in Europe, it remains extremely sensitive in the United States, where many States, against the federal rule, have passed laws to drastically reduce the scope. The Churches and evangelists, in particular, are wind standing. Events “pro-life” are held regularly, the surgeons performing the procedure are threatened, and some twenty States expect a new decision from the supreme Court to completely ban abortion. This is a subject on which the position trench Biden could make him lose voters. Among the evangelists, and also latinos, the community where the faithful pro-life are many.
The other risk taken by Biden during the debate is economic. It relates to the oil industry. Trump, who wanted to force him to take a position on sustainable development, immediately shouted victory when his opponent has recognized that he wanted an evolution to decrease the share of fossil fuels in the growth. “Listen to this important statement of my opponent, you, the voters of Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania. He wants to destroy the industry which makes the wealth of your States “, he hammered.
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The respondents have a tendency to do not admit they will vote for him
The mobilization of its armies of fanatics and their aggressive door-to-door, the debate on abortion and the future of oil, what are the strengths that Trump account to catch up. Not nationally, but, as he had done in 2016, in States that count. And especially those in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, where the gap between the two opponents is, as they say the pollsters, ” within the margin of error “. Especially as the supporters of the president have noticed that – as we said in France for the vote Rally national respondents, given the poor reputation of the media Trump, tend not to admit they will vote for him. Ahead of Biden in the polls would therefore not be what is advertised.
a week of voting, the u.s. election is not so much played as many say.
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