Finland’s decision to join NATO makes perfect sense after seeing what has happened in Ukraine, but it is bad news for the goal of achieving a comprehensive and lasting peace between the West and Russia. It is true that while the Russian army bombs and kills the Ukrainian population, it is difficult to build a distant and cold strategy on the final horizon of the conflict. But it is necessary to evaluate very well all the decisions that are taken to avoid an even greater escalation of it. During these almost three months of war, public opinion has become much better acquainted with the reasons that have prompted Russia to start this war, beyond the fact that it cannot be shared at all. Countless testimonies these days have recalled the unfulfilled promises of the US and Europe that NATO would not expand “one centimeter” to the East. Russia always warned NATO not to reach its borders.
The arguments that have led Russia to invade Ukraine may now lead it to do the same in Finland, except that, if this country ends up joining NATO, global war will already be a reality. Therefore, understanding well the reasons of Finland and, also, of Sweden, of wanting to be more protected from the Russian threat, it is worth thinking carefully about the consequences of this integration.
Given the Finnish announcement, Russia’s first reaction was to cut off gas supplies to Europe through Poland. Western politicians have filled their mouths with threats to veto Russian oil and gas, as the G-7 bosses signed last Sunday, but the only reality is that it is Russia that has the key to the tap and if it decides to turn it off, the energy crisis that the European continent will experience would be unimaginable.
There is always time to avoid new mistakes. Now nobody foresees that there could be an invasion of Finland, nor that there could be a direct war between Russia and NATO. It is the same thing that happened before the Ukraine war. It was believed that Russia would put its commercial interests before its patriotic sentiment and we have already seen how it has all ended. In this context, Turkey’s decision to veto the entry of Finland and Sweden may end up being a long-term success.
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