In the eyes of Olaf Scholz (SPD), “a difficult year” is coming to an end. Exploding prices, energy shortages, existential fears, not least a war in Europe. “This turning point is also putting us and our country to the test,” stated the Federal Chancellor in his New Year’s speech.
Scholz has been leading the traffic light alliance of the SPD, Greens and FDP for twelve months – under historically difficult circumstances. As a result, the coalition partners had to adapt their 177-page coalition agreement, in which they promised “more progress”, to reality several times. Still, much has been accomplished and progress is evident.
Neither a “hot autumn” nor a “fury winter” occurred. Several relief packages are intended to make the rising (energy) prices more bearable, and a “special fund” to strengthen the Bundeswehr. A number of changes have already come into effect at the turn of the year, including citizen income.
Nevertheless, the coming year is likely to prove turbulent for the three-party alliance. The Ukraine war and the economic consequences for Germany should continue to occupy the traffic light, as well as three state elections (and a repeat election) and all sorts of sensitive and potential contentious issues among the coalition partners. An overview.
Although a price brake for electricity and gas is to take effect this year, which is intended to relieve many customers, further measures could become necessary depending on how the situation develops.
“We will have to endure higher prices throughout the year,” said Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen). Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) also assumes that energy prices will remain at a high level, “but without ruinous peaks”. For 2023 he expects inflation of seven percent, he said to “Bild am Sonntag”.
Comparatively mild temperatures are currently causing increasing reserves in Germany’s gas storage facilities, but experts and politicians are warning of a possible supply gap in the coming winter. Chancellor Scholz assumes that Germany will get through next winter “if nothing unforeseen happens”. As a result, he wants to continue to expand the liquid gas terminals, and the first of six LNG investors has now started.
In the long term, renewable energies should also eliminate dependence on Russian gas, but the expansion will take time. In the short term, at least Finance Minister Lindner also sees fracking in Germany as part of the solution – in contrast to the coalition partners. He also repeatedly questioned the shutdown of the remaining three nuclear power plants, which will continue to run until mid-April. There is a need for speech programmed in the traffic light.
For the Germans, fighting inflation (63 percent) and securing the energy supply (61 percent) are among the most important topics in the coming year, according to a current Insa survey for “Bild am Sonntag”.
Most recently, the statement by the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, according to which the corona pandemic was turning into an endemic, fueled the debate about the corona protective measures. Finance Minister Lindner called for the mask requirement in long-distance rail transport to be ended “at the earliest opportunity” – the SPD and Greens are skeptical about this.
There is also an obvious need for discussion when it comes to work on Germany’s “national security strategy”. According to information from “Welt” and “Spiegel”, the Federal Chancellery and the Federal Ministry of Finance rejected a draft of the Federal Foreign Office for the strategy – due to differences in some central points of the text. The traffic light’s original schedule called for the strategy to be presented before the Munich Security Conference in mid-February. This schedule is now in question because the government partners are still far apart, reported “Spiegel” and “Welt”, citing government circles.
There are also different views in the coalition regarding arms deliveries to Ukraine. Despite requests from Kyiv, the federal government has so far refused to hand over modern Leopard and Marder tanks. One of the biggest critics of this decision is the FDP defense politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. “I’m so tired of the excuses why we can’t deliver tanks,” she said recently. Greens are also increasing the pressure on Chancellor Scholz to expand German arms aid.
The modernization of the Bundeswehr, which is to be upgraded with a special fund of 100 billion euros – and is only making slow progress, as Eva Högl, Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces, complained, is also likely to remain controversial. A “total failure” in the “Puma” infantry fighting vehicle has recently become known. You have “an incredible number of construction sites to tackle,” said defense politician Strack-Zimmermann from the FDP, who expects little improvement in 2023. The opposition is becoming clearer: “If you’re wondering about the current situation in the Bundeswehr, you can say: The fish stinks from the head,” said the defense policy spokesman for the Union faction, Florian Hahn, addressing Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD).
However, these are topics that were already a topic of conversation in the past year. The traffic light coalition, for which 2023 is also the halfway point in their term of office, has still made some plans in the coalition agreement – such as reforming electoral law and citizenship law or introducing basic child security, the key points of which the federal government would like to present at the beginning of the year.
After exactly one year in office, the traffic light coalition was in polls (like here and here) without its own majority. That was at the beginning of December. Will the mood change again in the new year? The SPD, Greens and FDP should be able to see this from the results of three state elections (and one re-election) this year.
The first is Berlin (February 12), where the elections to the House of Representatives and the district parliaments will be repeated after a decision by the State Constitutional Court due to numerous mishaps. The Green Transport Senator Bettina Jarasch is not as well known as Franziska Giffey (SPD), but could replace her as governing mayor – the polls predict a neck-and-neck race.
There are also elections in Bremen (May 14), Bavaria (October 8) and Hesse (October 28). In Bremen it is up to the SPD to defend its mayoral post, whereas in Hesse and Bavaria the CDU and CSU want to retain their top position.
Particular attention should be paid to the performance of the FDP in all four elections. “If the negative trend of the Liberals in the 2023 elections continues, this will shake the traffic light coalition in the federal government,” predicted political scientist Uwe Jun in the “Tagesspiegel”. Liberal voters are even more dissatisfied with the traffic light coalition than those of the CDU. “They don’t feel comfortable in the traffic light because they don’t see enough FDP in it,” said Jun. The FDP doesn’t take place enough and can’t make their design claim clear. If the negative trend continues, the suffering of the liberals at the federal level is likely to increase.
The state elections in Hesse could also have a direct impact on Chancellor Scholz’s cabinet. Should Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser be chosen as the top candidate – which is to be expected – a number of questions should arise: What if Faeser loses? Will she then go to the opposition in Hesse, where she has been for many years? Or will she stay in Berlin?
“You have to imagine Olaf Scholz as a stubborn person,” writes stern policy chief Nico Fried. “He will only reshuffle his cabinet if there is no other option.” If Faeser wants to remain Minister of the Interior, it will not fail because of him. “And the chancellor isn’t kicking out the much-criticized ministers Christine Lambrecht and (Federal Minister of Health) Karl Lauterbach prematurely. That would mean admitting that it was a mistake to appoint them.”
Meanwhile, the displeasure with Lauterbach and Lambrecht is growing by the day: FDP Vice Wolfgang Kubicki questioned whether the health minister could remain in office “the entire legislative period”, while the defense minister repeatedly drew scorn and ridicule, most recently with a failed one New Year’s message.
And so 2023 should also be at least a busy year for the traffic light coalition. In his New Year’s speech, the chancellor was optimistic: “Let’s stay true to the path we took last year,” he demanded. “Let’s go boldly on.”
Sources: Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, “Tagesschau”, ZDF, “Bild am Sonntag”, n-tv, “Der Spiegel”, “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, “Handelsblatt”, “Tagesspiegel”, with material from the AFP news agency
