According to an evaluation of a study, the use of synthetic fuels, so-called e-fuels, in road traffic makes “little sense” in the short and medium term based on the current state of knowledge. The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) published a discussion paper on Tuesday, according to which there are “many” reasons against the use of e-fuels produced with electricity in cars and trucks. Such a use is “economically and ecologically not expedient”.
One of the reasons is availability: global renewable electricity production would have to be almost doubled compared to today in order to achieve a global share of ten percent of green hydrogen and synthetic combustibles and fuels including e-fuels in 2050 – the latter will therefore be be scarce and expensive for a long time to come, the paper states.
The authors therefore advise concentrating the use of e-fuels on areas of application in which there are no other economic alternatives for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality. You name the steel sector, basic chemicals, refineries and international air and shipping traffic.
The paper also mentions the “enormous” conversion losses: Alternatives such as direct electrification are up to five times more efficient in terms of electricity use. The CO2 avoidance costs for cars with e-fuels in 2030 are around 1000 euros per tonne of CO2 and thus many times higher than those of electromobility or other climate protection measures.
E-fuels are also expensive and could hardly be paid for by low-income households in the future. The authors cite studies that, even after significant cost reduction potential has been achieved, still assume a price of between 1.20 euros and 3.60 euros per liter for e-fuels in 2050 – plus taxes, levies, profit margins, sales expenses and research and development costs . The liter price for fossil fuels without taxes and duties is currently 60 to 70 cents per liter.
Finally, the environmental balance is “problematic” because the synthetic fuels release nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and particulate matter when they are burned in the engine.
Co-author Martin Wietschel, Head of the Competence Center Energy Technologies and Energy Systems at Fraunhofer ISI, also warned against the use of e-fuels in road traffic from an “innovation perspective”: Necessary initiatives towards electromobility or other alternative forms of mobility could be slowed down. “Because the success of the traffic turnaround also requires clear signals as well as planning and expectation certainty.”
The FDP recently got through that the EU wants to consider an exception for cars that are fueled with synthetic fuels when banning internal combustion engines from 2035. The FDP referred to the openness to technology that is important to them. The Fraunhofer ISI discussion paper says: “Should the current scientific forecasts for e-fuels prove to be too pessimistic, contrary to expectations, their use in road traffic could be given more consideration at a later date.”
