In his own words, Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder definitely does not want to become the Union Chancellor candidate for the Bundestag elections. In the ZDF program “Markus Lanz”, Söder, who is also the head of the CSU, said on Tuesday evening: “The issue is over for me.” His mission in life is Bavaria. When asked whether he would reject the offer for chancellor candidacy even if it came, Söder said: “Apart from the fact that it doesn’t come: I’m not available there.”

From today’s perspective, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is also chairman of the Union in the Bundestag, has the best chances, said Söder with a view to a candidacy. “We work really, really well together. It’s a very good cooperation.” Together they have stabilized the Union. “That’s why, from my point of view, he is of course the natural candidate to be party leader and parliamentary group leader.” In the end, the CDU first decides who to propose, and then the two party leaders decide.

The next federal election is in 2025. Before the 2021 federal election, the power struggle between Söder and the then CDU leader Armin Laschet over the candidacy for chancellor almost led to the breakup of the Union – and ultimately to the fact that with Olaf Scholz a social democrat chancellor and a red-green -Yellow government is in power.

In surveys, the Union is currently between 27 and 31 percent – well ahead of the SPD with up to 21 percent or the Greens with up to 18 percent. In Bavaria, a new state parliament will be elected in autumn. The CSU wants to select Söder as the top candidate on Saturday.