Security expert Christian Mölling expects that the Russian leadership will break with Yevgeny Prigoshin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group. Mölling says in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation” that the dispute between Prigozhin and the leadership in Moscow binds political forces and shows how complicated the situation is. “Overall, we can see that the Russian system will probably get rid of Prigozhin,” said the research director of the German Society for Foreign Relations.
He justifies this with Prigozhin’s refusal to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry. President Vladimir Putin himself has backed the demand that the private armies enter into formal agreements with the ministry. According to Mölling, Prigozhin’s attitude “can’t, of course, be accepted by the system.” According to his assessment, the departure of the Wagner boss would not necessarily have any consequences for the combat effectiveness of the Russian side, since his mercenaries could join other private troops. And it seems that new associations of this kind are constantly emerging.
Mölling sees the struggle within the Russian power elite as an indication that it is becoming more difficult to stabilize the regime: “We may be seeing another facet of the gradual disintegration of the order, which used to be a violent order.” The private actors are concerned with their profit and not with a larger goal. “At some point they will all clash,” he predicted.
Mölling expressed reservations about the course of the Ukrainian offensive. It is still too early to tell if she will succeed. “One of the challenges is that the Ukrainian formations have to operate without air defense, at least to a large extent,” explains the expert. That makes it easier for attack helicopters to shoot at the Ukrainians. In addition, more means of electronic warfare would obviously be used, with which the Russians could jam radio communications and GPS control of part of the enemy’s artillery and rocket artillery.
It was to be expected that Ukraine would meet more resistance than previous advances. “Russia was able to prepare much better for this attack. It was clear that it was coming,” said Mölling. Although the Ukrainians quickly adapted to the challenges, they still had to take losses: “When you put forward an offensive, you have significantly more losses than on the defensive.” This also applies to the material used, which has to be continuously replenished with new deliveries. Mölling: “Things will indeed break down, that’s the way it is.”
