According to industry experts, the market share of e-cars in new registrations in Germany is likely to fall sharply in the coming year. The reason for this is the lower subsidies from the state when buying.
Ahead of the IAA motor show in Munich (September 4 to 10), Volkswagen and BMW are confident about future demand for e-cars. The automobile club ADAC, on the other hand, believes that a longer start-up phase with taxpayer money is necessary.
Management consultancy Deloitte expects e-car sales in Germany to slump by a third in 2024. One reason is the end of the purchase premiums for commercial owners in September and the gradual expiry of the premiums for private buyers by the end of 2025.
Discounts expected for combustion engines
“In addition, higher discounts for combustion engines could jeopardize the federal government’s goals for ramping up e-mobility,” write the industry experts. Instead of the targeted 15 million e-cars, only 11.7 million should be on the road in 2030. Deloitte does not expect e-cars to have a market share of more than 30 percent in new registrations until 2026. Management consultancy PwC estimates that by 2027 the majority of new cars will be electric, because then the cost advantages of e-cars over combustion engines would prevail.
Volkswagen hopes that the IAA will revive the recently weakening demand for electric cars. “By 2027, we will be launching eleven new electric models as a brand,” announced brand boss Thomas Schäfer in an interview with the German Press Agency. The head of the core brand wants to stick to the electric course that has been taken, despite the recently cooled demand. “We assume that the share of e-cars in Europe will increase significantly in the coming years,” said Schäfer. He described the fact that the popularity had recently decreased as an intermediate low.
BMW presents “New Class”.
BMW wants to sell 15 percent of its cars with electric drives this year, and by 2026 it should be 33 percent. With the new class, BMW is putting its Stromer on a platform specially developed for electric cars for the first time. The first models with 30 percent more range, 30 percent higher charging speed and new software are expected to come onto the market from the end of 2025.
CEO Oliver Zipse said that BMW already earns no less money with its electric cars than with its petrol and diesel cars. Production is more expensive, the costs are higher – but “the assumption that combustion engines are always more profitable than electric cars is completely wrong,” he said in Munich. “Today we earn money with every electric car, and that will be even more the case with the new class.”
ADAC President Christian Reinicke does not yet see the prospects for electromobility as favorable. The government should not reduce the promotion of e-cars, but must expand them. “In my opinion, reliable, ongoing state funding is the key to convincing people to switch,” Reinicke told the newspapers of the Bayern media group.
“Politicians should continue to support e-cars beyond 2024, reliably until the end of the decade. The annual cap on funding must also go.” In the second half of the year, there was a clear reluctance to buy cars, “because people fear that the subsidies have already been used up”.
