The Corona-pandemic undermines the optimistic economic assumptions of the German government, writes the Alliance in a new study for the German statutory pension insurance scheme. Thus, the currently valid advance were to say to contribution rates and pension levels by 2025 outdated. The study’s authors expect “on the basis of short-time working and rising unemployment,” alone in 2020, a financial hole of at least eight-billion-Euro .
pension cuts are legally analyzed
banned The study of how this gap can be compensated for. An obvious variant retires, the pension cuts are prohibited by law.
An other possibility would be it, the contribution rates increase. However, many citizens reject, furthermore, the wage increase to cost. A third variant remains: The pension scheme has the so-called Sustainability reserve will Deplete faster than planned, as the study authors recommend.
Background: , The Federal work-explained in the Ministry, that the contribution rate (currently 18.6%) change only when required in the amount of the Sustainability reserve. It falls to a value below 0.2 month’s expenditure, is increased, the rate of contribution. The reserve is higher than 1.5 month expenses, reduces the contribution rate, however. The policy has set for the period up to the year 2025, the contribution rate must be at least 18.6% and a maximum of 20 percent may be.
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The faster melting of the reserve did not resolve the fundamental challenges of the public pension, the Allianz study: The demographic change – the aging of society – do “adequate Capital buffers and further reforms of the pension system” needed it.
beautiful weather forecasts avenge
emphasized that the Federal government had granted in the past years, “generous new pension benefits” – such as the mothers ‘ pension, II to January 2019. This was the case at the time in the face of favorable economic data.
in addition to a limited rate of contribution, the policy guaranteed that the pension level will be stable in the coming years, 48 percent.
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The Federal government had assumed in its forecast in the autumn of 2019 of good labour market data, the criticism of the study. The average number of unemployed should be around 2.3 million. In addition, according to the forecast, will rise the wage bill in 2020 by 3.2 per cent, within the next four years by an average of 2.9 percent.
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short-time work is skyrocketing, workers fear for their Jobs
The assumptions from the last autumn, do not correspond in times of Corona-crisis, the current frame data, according to the study. The pandemic was the number of workers on short time to a value of twelve million high-speed. Also, the number of unemployed is likely to exceed the assumptions in the autumn. Thus, high-wage future increases are hardly realistic.
The study calculates: if it is assumed – in spite of the Corona-crisis – average monthly wage increases of 0.1 percent, then the contribution of revenue alone in the year 2020 would be around eight billion lower than expected. Only temporarily, the gap with the sustainability of return, let the situation clear.
Therefore, the clear conclusion is: “The Corona-crisis will trigger the need for contribution rate increases.”
increase in state aid is risky
As a last resort, the only way is to increase the state subsidies to stay. A rising public debt was, in front of Covid-19 and the further aging of the society, but “rather short-sighted,” warns the study.
would have to be In the extent to which the proposed premium increase, the study. It’s called, but the frame data, where a discussion must be based:
- by 2050, the number of people in pension age will increase to 3.6 million or 20 percent
- at the same time, the number of people in employment, declining working-age 5.5 million (approximately eleven percent)
This development will only win after the year 2030 to pace. Therefore, it should be time for reform. There are increases in the contribution rates, retirement age and the future level of pension benefits. Everything about the development of the Corona-crisis
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