will stagnate Temporarily, the prices of real estate in Germany, says Commerzbank Research in a study. In large cities, you could even fall slightly. These effects are likely to persist only briefly. Starting in 2021, the prices will rise “again”, – stated in the analysis. The reason for this clear statement: “The most important driver of the real estate boom of the past few years continue to be given”, so the expectation.
citizens will have to temporarily accept a loss of income
for employees, the study has a comforting message: The inevitable loss of income as a result of the Corona-crisis will probably “turn out to be smaller than some feared given the looming collapse of the gross domestic product,” it says. The authors relied on the experience of the financial crisis in the years 2008 and 2009.
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in 2009, a broke, economic output (GDP) by up to seven percent, the per capita disposable income fell in the fourth quarter of 2008, but only 2.5 per cent. After that, they remained until the end of 2009, stable. Starting in 2010, they were up again. Commerzbank Research, Destatis, Disposable income per capita, real gross domestic product, seasonally and working day adjusted, Index 2007=100
short-time work reduces the impact of solid
Although the authors acknowledge that the Corona-crisis impacted the economy more than the collapse of Lehman brothers from 2008, they remain optimistic: After a far-reaching economic easing, the loss of income after three or four quarters is not expected to be “after the beginning of the crisis, much greater” than during the financial crisis.
Then, as now, the sun to the Instrument of short-time work. They help to prevent mass redundancies. For 2008, let say: “at that Time, up to 1.4 million people were temporarily in short-time work, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points”.
get Currently used short-time work is much stronger than in 2008. The sun at the Grassi professionals for a defective – employers have according to the study, a high interest to keep their regular workforce. Commerzbank Research, Destatis
loosening of the economy can quickly re-grow
the authors of The study emphasise the “uncertainty about the further course of the Virus spread”. Nevertheless, you can expect with a view to the progressive loosening of a quick recovery of economic life.
The study specifically praises the efforts of the policy at the Federal and EU level. Both have “massive resources are free to the financial hardship for businesses and households to cushion and to withstand the lean period,” says the analysis. Real estate Atlas 2020
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house prices are only temporarily under pressure
The listed reasons make it seem likely “that the house prices in Germany are expected to remain largely stable,” it says in summary.
the Corona-crisis-induced price pressure on the real estate market do not want to overstate the study’s authors. Also, you refer to a long-term Trend: in the year 2019, the increase in the price of the big city have subsided-real-estate. For the first time in a long time, their increase rates were behind the German average. Commerzbank Research
– Loose monetary policy of the ECB strengthens the real estate prices
As an important factor for the recovery of real estate markets, the study is called the “loose monetary policy of the ECB and other Central banks”. ECB President Christine Lagarde had said, “that there are no limits to our commitment to the Euro”. Similar to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have adapted their monetary policy.
The trillion-aid by the Central banks from the point of view of the authors that “investments in real estate are becoming increasingly attractive”. In addition, the currently very low mortgage interest rates real estate Finance. The study area refers to the so-called affordability index. After that, a house purchase is currently as low as never before in the past. This will not change in the medium term. Commerzbank research Buy, Rent or Build? (Display) you can now Find the property of your dreams!
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