In Africa, the economic crisis has become in a short time quick a cruel reality. The united Nations economic Commission for Africa (ECA) reported on Wednesday 3 June, the pandemic of Covid-19 may, according to its projections push 29 million people in extreme poverty. “Africa is already experiencing the impact of the economic crisis of the Covid-19 even before its impact on public health and they may suffer a slowdown in growth from 1.8% to 2.6% of GDP, which could grow to 29 million people in extreme poverty “, said the executive secretary of the ECA, Vera Songwe, in a news release. And the measures put in place in 42 countries of Africa to protect people from the pandemic, ” has already cost the region nearly 69 billion dollars per month and should have a negative impact on the implementation of the sustainable development Goals (SDGS) in the region “. Illustration in Cote d’ivoire, where the national statistics Institute and the UNDP, the united Nations program for development took out three surveys on the socio-economic consequences of the pandemic and the impacts more specifically on the sectors of the informal sector and the firms in the formal. Result in this country of seven million people are already placed below the poverty line.
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An investigation on three dimensions
For the moment, these are only estimates, but the perspectives they present are not reassuring for the future. According to the authors, ” this study reveals shock-immediate and future-on the household and the productive sector informal “. First observation : the average monthly income of household heads the ivorian has fallen from 43 % in April, from 60 000 to 34 000 francs CFA. More than 32 % of the families fell below the poverty line, or about 7 million people.
Second education, the crisis hit a lot more households in urban than in rural areas, and in particular the households of the capital Abidjan. For example : more than 72 % of the heads of household unemployed technical result of the Covid-19 resident in Abidjan, compared to only 28 % in the interior of the country. And no stratum of society is spared. The crisis has destroyed 1.3 million jobs in the informal sector is 39 %. More than a quarter of what is called the “informal production units” have had to stop their activity, and over half have been forced to reduce it. It should be noted that the informal sector plays a dominant role in the economy of the Ivory Coast. Indeed, this sector contributes more than 40 % of gross domestic product (GDP) and job creation. But as revealed by the survey teams of the INS and UNDP ” in a special way, the heads of the UPI are very satisfied with the extent of implementation of a specific fund to informal sector enterprises affected by the crisis for a total amount of 100 billion FCFA, and consider that this measure will have a positive impact on their business “.
In the meantime, one of the consequences of this reduced income, it is the inability of households to repay their debts, and especially to deal with domestic spending. These figures only confirm the fears expressed since the beginning of the pandemic by different institutions such as the world Bank, which estimates that growth in sub-saharan Africa is expected to shrink sharply from 2.4 per cent to 5.1 per cent, plunging the region into its first recession in more than 25 years. “This crisis has exacerbated the vulnerability of households and the fragility of the informal sector and small and medium-sized enterprises “, analysis, for its part, the UNDP.
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Côte d’ivoire variously impacted
For the case of Côte d’ivoire, the consequences of the pandemic can be assessed at several levels. Even if the number of cases of coronavirus increases it is stable enough with 3 110 cases and 35 deaths, the country is still impacted, as all african States are rich in natural resources to a sharp decline in the demand for and prices of course.
Far from being indifferent, the government responded fairly quickly. And there was an emergency. Since this is the first time for many years that the Ivory Coast will see a growth of less than 5 %. “Our economic growth estimated at 7.2% for the year 2020 would be reduced by half, to 3.6 %, in the hypothesis of a control of the pandemic at the end of June,” announced the Prime minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly. Accordingly, his government had taken economic measures to compensate for the losses. He quickly adopted a plan of response national that contains measures supporting businesses. In order to know their impact on the long-term, the State has planned to continue its series of surveys, every six weeks, in collaboration with the World Bank and the agencies of the united Nations system, in order to measure the evolution in the light of government decisions in response to the pandemic of the Covid-19. In the light of the first three studies there are three possible scenarios that would have serious consequences on the poverty in the country. If the crisis should last for only a quarter of the poverty rate – which was around 37 % before the crisis in health would increase by 4 points. + 10 % if the crisis was to last two quarters. + 21 points, or a poverty rate approaching 60 % if the crisis were to last a year or more.
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*ECA, economic Commission for Africa.
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