investments of $ 400 billion, stretched over 25 years: With this sum, China wants to engage a in June of this year, agreed commercial agreement in Iran. The sum is to stretch in the Expansion of roads, rail, ports, and other infrastructure projects, in tourism and in the oil and gas industry flow. Also in the Iranian banks and the telecommunications sector, is committed to China. In return, Iran the price of oil supplies to China, and to a greatly favoured, special.
The 18-page agreement also foresees closer military cooperation. Are planned common courses of training and maneuvers, joint research, and (weapons) development. Also, the two States want to share the findings of their secret services.
a Variety of goals and motives
Both States have had with the – from the Iranian Parliament has not yet ratified Convention says a whole bunch of goals, Stefan Lukas, middle East Analyst at the chair for International relations at the University of Jena.
“Iran tried, after the Failure of the nuclear agreement, new markets and customers for its Oil, Gas and steel to be found in the East. In particular, China, since the country has a huge energy demand, and currently also a contrary Position to the US policies.”
The goal is to be able to better support the possible military attacks by the US and Israel set. “In this sense, Iran has already done the first steps for the membership of China and Russia-dominated security organization’, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’ (SCO).”
China, in contrast, in Iran, to a large market with more than 80 million consumers, most of whom are under 40 years of age, and also consumption of be joyful, so Luke in the DW-interview. “In addition, Iran for Beijing is due to its geostrategic locations between the Central-, South – and West Asia is interesting. This is particularly in the framework of the new silk road initiative (BRI), in which Iran is considered to be one of the most important partners.” Currently, Chinese construction and transport companies in Iran are active, the close contacts with the revolutionary guards and its big company would have.
“turning point” of the Iranian-Chinese relations
At the same time expressed in the agreement, the military intentions of China in Iran. This is, in particular, to the use of ports and airports, for Chinese (and Russian) military machine. “As a result, you can bind with relatively little effort, the US will continue in the Region, which under Obama, is actually the Pacific ocean as the new ‘battle field’ with China have identified,” said Luke.
The political Analyst Kaveh L. Afrasiab describes the agreement in an Interview with the state-run Iranian website “Iranian Diplomacy” as a turning point in Iranian-Chinese relations. He sees the reasons in the failure of the nuclear agreement, to support the sanctions as well as the failed European Attempt, the Iran on the trade because of economic.
Although the Agreement was not yet familiar with all the details, so Afrasiab. So far, the public has become details would suggest that you “could torpedo the American sanctions”.
discussion in Iran
To this evaluation is quite obviously the Iranian government. President Hassan Rouhani in his speech at the 15. To refer to July, on the occasion of the fifth anniversary of the failure of the nuclear agreement, self-confident: “The Americans should know that you will achieve in spite of the persistence with which they are working against the interests of the Iranian people, their goals never,” said Rouhani, without reference to the new agreement with China.
However, the agreement in Iran is a very contentious one. So the former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad criticized the government of Rouhani for the “secret signing of an agreement” with a foreign state. “Such an agreement, the acts contrary to the will and the national interests of the people, is not valid and is not recognized by the Iranian Nation,” said Ahmadinejad, the Internet-the magazine “Al-Monitor”. The signing of the agreement would violate the fundamental principles of the Islamic Revolution. Particular resentment aroused Al-Monitor that the previously unconfirmed message to send the agreement to permit China, up to 5,000 troops in Iran to protect its interests.
foreign policy consequences
should the outside benefit politically to Iran of the agreement with China is enormous, expected to Lukas. China to Iran – except in the case of an open Iranian-American war – continued political and economic support give. “The support extends also to the highest UN body where Russia and China in the UN security Council, Iran is increasingly under the arms to grab. For the Region, this means, first of all, a more stable Iran, which is at the same time occur but continue to be self-aware, and sometimes provocative.”
Although Iran had troops due to the tense economic Situation in the country the financing of his Deputies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the people’s mobilisation units in Iraq currently back screws. “But you will have to adjust to a strengthening of Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and, in part, Yemen and the Gaza strip. In addition, there will be after the presidential elections next year, most likely a President will come from the camp of the hardliners. The sounds from Tehran will be probably a foreign policy significantly louder and more radical than under Hassan Rouhani”, expecting Luke.
in Addition will move with the increased presence of Russian and in the long term, probably of Chinese troops in the Region, the relationship of forces in favor of the Eastern cooperative partner and your ally, so Lukas continued. “Especially Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other former close Partner ‘of the West’ will not be overlooked and your attention not only to the West to align. First weapons deals with Chinese consortia in the Gulf States are an indication of this.”
the impact on China’s relations between the USA
in Addition, is likely to affect the agreements, relations between Washington and Tehran solid. “Would be implemented by the partnership as provided for, it would create new and potentially dangerous focal points in which deteriorating relationship between China and the United States,” reads an analysis by the New York Times.
according to The paper, the waning commitment of the United States, China plays directly into the hands. “In a time, in the United States are affected by the recession and the Coronavirus and internationally are increasingly isolated, feels Beijing is the American weakness.” The draft agreement showed, so the New York Times: “unlike most other countries, China believes it will be able to put the United States to resist and strong enough to American penalties, as in the trade of war, to withstand.”
author: Kersten Knipp
*The contribution of “Robust partnership between Iran and China,” published by Deutsche Welle. Contact with the executives here.
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