According to a forecast, the amount of undeclared work in Germany will rise to an estimated 463 billion euros this year. This is an increase of around 80 billion euros compared to 2022, reported “Welt am Sonntag”, citing figures from financial scientist Friedrich Schneider.
The ratio of the forecast shadow economy to gross domestic product will therefore grow to 10.7 percent of economic output.
Schneider has been calculating the extent of undeclared work for a long time. To make his estimates, he uses a complex procedure that combines several variables that are indirect indicators of the shadow economy. These include tax morale, the unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the demand for cash.
At the beginning of the year, the economist had already forecast a strong increase in the shadow economy to 443 billion euros by 2023. Now, due to high prices and the effects of the energy crisis, Schneider is forced to revise this figure upwards – by 20 billion euros. As a result of this increase alone, he expects lost taxes and social security contributions of a further 2.4 billion euros.
