At the end of the first election year after the change of power in Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD turned the corner once again. Your Prime Minister Stephan Weil emerges as the winner of the state elections in Lower Saxony and is not even dependent on the previous coalition partner CDU to form a government. According to the first projections, it could be enough for a red-green coalition – even if the FDP moves into the state parliament.
But the weakening of the liberals could become a problem for the traffic light. A battered and therefore riot-ridden smallest coalition partner could make governing in Berlin even more difficult.
SPD: A conciliatory end to a mixed election year
For the SPD, a mixed election year ended more than forgivingly. It had started with a triumphant election victory in Saarland, where Anke Rehlinger won an absolute majority for the Social Democrats. Then followed two major disappointments in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia. In both countries, the official bonus took off, the CDU prime ministers were re-elected. That was bearable.
A defeat this Sunday would have been a disaster for the SPD. Lower Saxony is the only one of the five most populous federal states that is still governed by social democracy. A defeat there would have been blamed primarily on Chancellor Scholz and his bumpy efforts to cushion the drastically rising energy prices.
Scholz: More legroom for the “double boom”
The election victory now gives Scholz a little more legroom for further crisis management. SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert spoke in an initial reaction of “tail wind” for the difficult tasks ahead. At the beginning of the week, the gas price commission presented its results, on the basis of which the federal government had to decide how exactly it wanted to design the “double boom” announced by Scholz to lower prices. The federal and state governments will then discuss financing the relief for citizens by mid-November at the latest.
Election winner Weil will probably continue to be the main negotiating partner for Scholz. At the beginning of October he took over the chairmanship of the Prime Ministers’ Conference, which should now remain in the hands of the Social Democrats. That will also make it easier for Scholz to continue to manage the crisis.
FDP: The only real traffic light loser
The traffic light punishment hoped for by the CDU did not materialize. With one exception: the FDP emerged as the only clear traffic light loser from the election and the entire election year. Did not get into the state parliament in Saarland in March; kicked out of state government in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia in May; and now in Lower Saxony again a nail-biter along the five-percent hurdle. The question of coaching would be asked in football – but party leader Christian Lindner is firmly in the saddle with the Liberals.
But he openly admitted the defeat: “We have suffered a political setback.” His weight in the traffic light, where he faces difficult financial policy months – keyword: defending the debt brake – is not exactly strengthened by the FDP’s loss of importance. This could lead to new profiling attempts and thus new trouble at traffic lights. However, the front man of the Liberals does not question the coalition – although in his words many FDP voters would be “stranged” with it: “We are aware of our responsibility for this country and its people.”
As a consequence, party Vice Wolfgang Kubicki demands that the FDP must “mark their positions more clearly” than before in the traffic lights. There are no reasonable answers to central challenges in the crisis. “We’ll have to work on that, or this traffic light will get into rough water.”
Greens: There was more in it – but government participation beckons
The Greens were able to improve their result significantly, but it could have been better. In the polls they were now over 20 percent. Now they will end up well below that mark. That could also cause frustration. However, government participation beckons. Lower Saxony could become the twelfth state in which they are in power – one more than the SPD and three more than the Union.
CDU: But not a triumphal year
And the opposition? CDU leader Friedrich Merz really wanted success in Lower Saxony. He made a good dozen campaign appearances there in the last week before the election alone. No wonder, since it would have been the perfect ending to a largely successful year. Thanks to the electoral successes in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, the loss of the state chancellery in the small Saarland was quickly settled. But since it is now also coming down to opposition instead of government benches in Hanover, the annual balance sheet is pretty mixed.
It was just a matter of a because election, was the language of the CDU on Sunday evening. In times of crisis, people choose those who are currently in power, said deputy party leader Carsten Linnemann. “Mr. Weil made full use of this official bonus, so congratulations.”
Merz can take credit for having stabilized the CDU nationwide within a year after the bankruptcy in the federal election. In the polls, it is again around ten percentage points ahead of the SPD – but still well under 30 percent. Which does not meet the demands of a large people’s party and a Friedrich Merz. “We have to get to 30 percent quickly, it will take a while,” was Linnemann’s target.
AfD: Comeback in the crisis
After three state elections with losses, the AfD has won again for the first time and, according to the projections, even has a double-digit result. That should be grist to the mills of the protest movement that the right-wing party wants to set up this fall. There was a foretaste on Saturday in Berlin, when several thousand people demonstrated in front of the Reichstag building against the federal government’s crisis policy, many of them with AfD flags. “We’re back,” said AfD chairman Tino Chrupalla on Sunday evening.
Left: The decline continues
For the Left, a disastrous election year ends in another disaster. As in the other three previous elections, it remains well below the five percent mark. The already existential crisis of the party is likely to exacerbate this a little further.
A long campaign break is imminent
After Lower Saxony, there is now a good six-month break in the election campaign. And even then, only the elections in Bremen, the smallest federal state, are due in May. Such non-campaign phases are more beneficial to policy at the federal level. The election campaign will only really get going again with the votes in autumn 2023 in Bavaria and Hesse.
