The divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union will not be entirely settled by the January 31, 2020. That day will be the last that the british will spend within the club community, but also the first negotiations to close a trade agreement that is proving difficult. And especially when the House of Commons has endorsed the plans of the prime minister and Boris Johnson to prevent any extension beyond 31 December 2020. The president of the European Commission, and Ursula von der Leyen, showed this Friday “very concerned” that count only with 11 months to resolve the future relationship between both parties and asked to make a balance to mid next year to calibrate the time required by the agreement.
After knowing the election results which gave an undisputed victory to Johnson, Brussels breathed a sigh of relief to see clear the danger from a Brexit to the bravas. It was a matter of days that the leaders of the new Commission would have to return to catch our breath. Johnson managed to put pressure again by rejecting any further extension beyond 31 December. That is to say, in 11 months it should be tied to a new trade agreement and all of the programs, since the Erasmus scholarships to defence projects, in which the Uk wants to follow.
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“it is Not just negotiate a free trade agreement, but many other issues. It seems to Me that on both sides we should ask ourselves seriously if all these negotiations are possible in such a short time,” said Von der Leyen in an interview in Les Echos. “I think it would be reasonable to make a balance at mid-year and, if necessary, agree to an extension of the transition period”, he added.
The plans of Brussels passed by achieving at all costs that the Twenty-seven leave them tied in the first half, issues such as the Multiannual Financial Framework for clearing the second part of the year. The future relationship between the Uk and the EU should be the main folder on the table of the German presidency. However, the plans of Johnson’s force to accelerate the time. “The agreement will be commercial fastest in history,” he said last week the second vice-president of the Commission, Margrethe Vestager, in a conversation with several european media, among them THE COUNTRY.
The European Commission thinks an agreement that is ambitious given the current economic relations between the block community and the United Kingdom. In 2018, 47% of the exports of the United Kingdom, had as a destination the rest of the EU (especially Germany, France, the Netherlands and Ireland), while the second trading partner was the USA (13%), according to data from the Commission. At the same time, 53% of imports came from the eu, far ahead of the united States (10%) and China (9%).
Importance of the equality of conditions
All indications are that Brussels will move within the maximum leveling the playing field: the more equal conditions are, the more ambitious the agreement will be. And vice-versa. “If you want to benefit from the prosperity of the single market, to gain access to him without barriers or customs duties, we must accept its principles and common values. Otherwise, both parties must agree on the barriers that need to be set,” said Von der Leyen. The president, whom Johnson informed him by phone of your desire to block any possibility of extension, stressed that the “principle of equality” of conditions is of utmost importance for Brussels.
“You need two to dance a tango,” recalled Vestager, who anticipated negotiations “very, very intense”. That is to say, to level that playing field, to ensure that no team has an advantage going to take time. It is enough to see, remember to diplomatic sources, the efforts that were required to secure an agreement to avoid a border lasts on the island of Ireland.
The uncertainty about a Brexit wild that had made clear the EU would return if in the autumn the agreement has not advanced, and Johnson continues to refuse to accept an extension of the transition period. For now, Brussels will start negotiations on the economic sectors that could be most damaged by an abrupt exit. The negotiator of the EU, Michel Barnier, has repeatedly warned: it will put all its effort to close a deal in 11 months, but the odds of getting it are low.
