Russia seemed to be far from war when Vladimir Putin declared the invasion of Ukraine. But the conflict returned within days — not with mortars and cruise missiles, but in the form unprecedented and unexpectedly large volleys by Western governments and corporate economic sanctions.
Many ordinary Russians are still reeling three months after the February 24 invasion. Moscow’s sprawling shopping centers have been transformed into terrifying expanses filled with shuttered storesfronts that were once owned by Western merchants.
McDonald’s, which opened in Russia in 1990 as a cultural phenomenon and a convenient modern convenience in a country with few options, was forced to leave Russia completely in response to the invasion of Ukraine. IKEA, the symbol of modern comforts and affordability, has been shut down. In a matter of minutes, tens of thousands of jobs that were once secure are suddenly in doubt.
Despite their large investments in Russia, major industrial players such as BP and Shell and Renault walked out. Shell estimates that it will lose $5 billion by trying unload its Russian assets.
While multinationals were fleeing, thousands of Russians with the economic resources fled, scared by new government moves that were connected to the war. They saw it as a plunge into totalitarianism. Some young men fled fearing that the Kremlin would force them to draft in order to feed its war machine.
However, fleeing was becoming more difficult than ever. The 27 member countries of the European Union had banned flights from Russia to and from the United States and Canada. Tallinn, Estonia’s capital, was once a convenient destination for long-weekend travelers, and it took only 90 minutes to fly from Moscow to Tallinn. It now takes at least 12 hours by plane through Istanbul.
Russians have seen a decrease in vicarious travel via social media and the Internet. Russia banned Facebook and Instagram in March — though that can be circumvented using VPNs — and closed access to foreign media websites including the BBC, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Deutsche Welle.
Many independent news media outlets were forced to close down or suspend operations after Russian authorities passed a law that could lead to up 15 years imprisonment for stories that contain “fake news” regarding the war. These included Novaya Gazeta and Ekho Moskvy radio stations. Dmitry Muratov, the newspaper’s editor, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
The psychological impact of restrictions, repressions and shrinking opportunities may be very high for ordinary Russians. However, it is difficult to measure. While some Russian public opinion polls suggest strong support for the Ukraine War, they are likely to be distorted by those who remain silent and avoid expressing their true views.
Andrei Kolesnikov, Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote that Russian society is currently governed by “aggressive submission” which could lead to a rapid decline in social ties.
