According to Western military experts, Russia’s winter offensive in eastern Ukraine has failed. The US Institute for War Studies (ISW) in Washington wrote that the goals of completely capturing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions had not been achieved. The analysts therefore expect a new restructuring of the Russian command structures for the war against Ukraine in the near future.
The chief of staff, Valeri Gerasimov, who was appointed commander of the troops in the war zone in January, did not meet the expectations of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, it said. He could hardly show any territorial gains. Putin had already changed commanders several times. According to ISW, March 31 was the target date for Gerasimov to capture the entire Donbass.
The experts justify the failure with the lack of combat effectiveness of the Russian troops. In the Donetsk region, fighting that has been going on for months continued to focus on the strategic city of Bakhmut and the region. There is no end in sight to this bloodiest battle of the war to date. Russia has repeatedly stated that it is preparing for a long war in view of the western supply of arms to Ukraine.
According to Russian military bloggers, Moscow’s armed forces should take Bakhmut and Avdiivka in preparation for the spring offensive by Ukrainian forces expected in April. The bloggers who observe and analyze the actions of the Russian troops have recently intensified their criticism of the military leadership in Moscow. As before, the public utterances of these ultranationalists are likely to influence Putin’s decisions.
The newly founded nationalist “Club of Angry Patriots” in Russia criticized the corrupt military leadership and elite in Moscow in a video. The initiators call for urgent action. Among them is former Russian intelligence officer Igor Girkin, who, under the pseudonym Igor Strelkov, led the 2014 uprising of pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine. He now warned of defeat in the war against Ukraine.
