The fact that Poland armed itself with a border fence along the Belarusian border last fall against migrants that President Lukashenko waved through to the west alarmed activists and aid organizations in particular. The main problem from their point of view: Poland allows people in need of help to accumulate at the border under rigid conditions. Poland’s attitude towards migrants has also provoked a crucial test within the EU. And between Warsaw and Minsk it crunched anyway.
The Ukraine war then gave Poland a chance to prove that the government is less hard-hearted than it has made it out to be over the last year. Suddenly, refugees were welcome – mind you, only those fleeing the Russian invaders in Ukraine. At least that calmed things down a bit between Warsaw and Brussels. So far, the European partners have not commented on the fact that the government is now putting up another border fence to the enclave of Kaliningrad.
However, relations between Poland and Belarus remain chilly. From the point of view of Poland and a number of other western countries, Lukashenko triggered an artificial wave of migration last fall. Thousands of people from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan were lured to Belarus to be sent from there across the Polish border. The calculation behind it: Lukashenko wanted to destabilize the region. Poland thus became the border fence for the entire EU – and is already becoming so again.
Figures at least suggest that the game from last fall is in danger of repeating itself. 117 people from different (North) African countries have been crossing the Polish border almost every day in the last few weeks. And exactly where there are no fences. Moscow could adopt the Belarusian destabilization tactics and even smuggle refugees to the EU via Poland.
That would be possible via the enclave of Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania. “The airport in Kaliningrad now allows flights from the Middle East and North Africa,” Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said last week. That is why work is already being done on a temporary barrier on the border with Kaliningrad. The barrier will consist of three parallel barbed wire fences with a height of 2.5 meters and a total width of 3 meters as well as electronic devices and will be 210 kilometers long.
At the same time, Poland and Lithuania announced that they would exchange intelligence information and hold unannounced military exercises. The army chiefs of both countries signed a corresponding agreement last week.
Meanwhile, Lukashenko continues to bully Poles. In Belarus, the newspapers are agitating against the government in Warsaw – among other things, because it is supplying arms to Ukraine and housing its citizens who have fled. The Polish-speaking citizens living in Belarus are particularly exposed to this harassment, as the “Spiegel” reports.
The Polish minority in Poland numbers around 300,000 people. You will now become the lightning rod for everything that does not happen in domestic politics according to Lukashenko’s wishes. Polish schools have already been closed, and the chairman of the Polish Association, Andrzej Poczobut, and a correspondent for the Warsaw daily Gazeta Wyborcza have been put behind bars. The Belarusian government officially regards him as a “terrorist”.
The regime also accuses the Polish minority of being Warsaw’s fifth column. Their plan is to conquer the Polish-settled areas in Belarus. From a political point of view, however, the Poles in Belarus were rather harmless, so the fears of the Lukashenko regime were not tenable. Hatred of Polish citizens runs deep, however. “In the eyes of a Lukashenko, Poles are already born enemies”; “Spiegel” quotes a Polish journalist who lives in Belarus.
Lukashenko shares his hatred of Poland with Putin and his loyal supporters. Putin’s bloodhound and Chechnya’s ruler Ramzan Kadyrov recently let it be known: “I’m interested in Poland.” The country is right after Ukraine. According to reports, Kadyrov’s fighters have already arrived in the border town of Brześć. As soon as the order comes, he can show Poland what they deserve in “six seconds,” Kadyrov said.
The Polish government therefore believes it is walking a fine line between providing military aid to Ukraine and securing its own country. Poland’s defense minister also sees his country’s international responsibility in this. The country is probably providing the justification for the construction of more border fences – and thus taking away the clout of all counterarguments. Because the EU can hardly afford internal quarrels between the member states during the Ukraine war.
Instead of using arguments about inhumane conditions at Polish borders, Brussels is looking for solidarity – and finds it in sanctions against Belarus. “We cannot allow Belarus to join Russian politics or for Russia to circumvent the effects of sanctions imposed by (…) Belarus,” said Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala on Tuesday, whose country currently holds the EU Council Presidency. There are already sanctions against Belarus. But the EU is now also dealing with the role that Belarus is playing in the Ukraine war.
Sources: Welt.de, Spiegel Online, with material from AFP and DPA
