The verdict of the top British judges is unequivocal: Without approval from London, Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom. There is no such consent, case closed. case closed? Not even close. Pro-independence advocates in Britain’s northernmost part of the country still see opportunities – and have reasons for doing so. You are not alone: in Northern Ireland, and even in Wales, the question of secession is becoming more openly debated. One of the reasons is the same everywhere: Brexit. The United Kingdom has long been at odds. An overview.
Scotland: The Supreme Court has ruled that the regional parliament cannot call an independence referendum without the consent of London. So Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s plan for a referendum in October 2023 is gone. But the advocates of independence are not letting up. Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) points out that in all polls since the Supreme Court ruling, a majority has voted in favor of secession. The regional parliament is already dominated by the SNP and the Greens, who also want to lead an independent Scotland back into the EU.
Sturgeon now wants to make the next British general election – planned for 2024 – a quasi-referendum. If a majority of Scots voted for pro-independence parties, that would be a clear mandate, she argues. London must correspond to this democratic will. It may be Sturgeon’s last chance for a long time. On March 19, her party wants to discuss this in Edinburgh and decide what further strategy should look like.
Wales: The country has been governed by the Labor Party for 100 years – and it is clearly pro-Union. Nevertheless, in the shadow of the Scots, independence tendencies in Wales are increasing. SNP sister party Plaid Cymru is Labor’s government partner and has pushed through an “Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales”. Their result: independence is one of three “practicable” solutions – different from the status quo.
In surveys, almost a third is currently in favor of detachment. That doesn’t sound like much, but the number has increased significantly in recent years. Proponents emphasize that Scotland had similar numbers around 15 years ago – and that the weights have now shifted there. Above all, the Welsh are bothered by the fact that the government in London has the last word in many areas. The scandalous course of the Conservative Party in London also contributed to this. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, a majority of Welsh voted to leave, but that has long since changed.
Fear of new riots in Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland: The situation in the former civil war province is explosive. Founded more than 100 years ago as a bastion of Protestant supporters of the union with Great Britain, more Catholics now live in Northern Ireland. They are traditionally in favor of unification with the EU state of Ireland. This development makes it likely that there will actually be a referendum in the next few years. If you ask around in the Irish capital Dublin, the only question seems to be when the merger will happen. According to the latest poll, two-thirds of Irish people would vote in favour.
But the situation is different in Northern Ireland. Not only would the vast majority of Protestants vote to remain in the kingdom, so would a good fifth of Catholics. Experts have identified an important factor: fear of new unrest. The republican terrorist group New IRA carried out attacks again.
But especially on the loyalist side, things are simmering. The magazine “Purple Standard”, which is considered the mouthpiece of the terrorist group UVF, recently warned that the leadership was no longer able to hold back angry junior staff. It’s about the consequences of Brexit: From the point of view of the Unionists, the agreement between the EU and Great Britain endangers the ties between Belfast and London. Because with this so-called Northern Ireland Protocol, a customs border was created in the Irish Sea. On the other hand, they resist with all their might.
No government of their own in England
That paralyzes the province. Because of the Brexit dispute, the most important Protestant-unionist force, the DUP, is boycotting the formation of the planned unity government with the Republican-Catholic Sinn Fein party. A new election will probably not solve the stalemate. Ironically, on the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement in April, which ended the civil war in 1998, there is a risk of escalation.
England: By far the largest part of the country is the only one that does not have its own government and parliament. Instead, the central government and the British Parliament decide at the same time. Hardly anyone has been bothered by this so far. No wonder, critics etch – after all, England is the main backing of the Conservative Party, which hasn’t been able to get its foot on the ground in Wales and Scotland for decades and, in the special case of Northern Ireland, isn’t standing for election anyway. As a result, the Tories are increasingly pursuing a nationalist, English policy that their voters particularly like. The danger here: If the trend continues, Great Britain could become a little England in a few years.
