The majority of Germans expect the AfD to achieve an absolute majority in at least one of the three state elections in East Germany this year and thus be able to appoint the Prime Minister.
According to a survey by the opinion research institute YouGov on behalf of the German Press Agency, 53 percent consider such a scenario to be likely and only 32 percent consider it unlikely. In East Germany, 58 percent expect the AfD to come to power in one of the three countries and become the head of government.
In September, new state parliaments will be elected in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg. In all three countries, the AfD is clearly ahead in surveys. In Brandenburg, the SPD currently has Dietmar Woidke as Prime Minister in a coalition with the CDU and the Greens. In Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, a CDU politician, is head of government and governs together with the Greens and the SPD. In Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow from the Left leads a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
All other parties represented in the three state parliaments are currently ruling out a coalition with the AfD. As things currently stand, the AfD could only become head of government if it received an absolute majority of seats in parliament.
42 percent do not believe that the “firewall” will last
However, 42 percent of those surveyed do not believe that the CDU/CSU will keep their promise not to work with the AfD at the state and federal level. Only 36 percent are of the opinion that this so-called “firewall” will hold.
The AfD is already responsible at the local level. Last year, an AfD politician was elected full-time mayor in Saxony-Anhalt for the first time. In mid-December, a candidate running for the AfD won a mayoral election in Pirna, Saxony. The AfD has also been the district administrator in the southern Thuringian district of Sonneberg for about six months.
European elections: majority does not see AfD as the strongest party
Local elections will take place in all five eastern German states except Berlin on June 9th. At the same time, the European Parliament is elected. This is the first nationwide vote since the 2021 federal election and is therefore an indicator of the mood in the country.
Only 28 percent of those surveyed consider it likely and 57 percent consider it unlikely that the AfD will become the strongest force. 56 percent believe the CDU/CSU is most likely to come first in this election, 20 percent the SPD and 11 percent the Greens.
Bundestag election: majority sees Union in first place
Looking ahead to the next federal election, which is currently in autumn 2025, the picture looks similar. 27 percent believe it is likely that the AfD will become the strongest party. However, 56 percent consider this to be unrealistic.
59 percent expect the CDU/CSU to win the election. In contrast, only 16 percent believe that the SPD will become the strongest party again with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Only 9 percent believe the Greens can do this.
