It is a rapprochement after more than seven years of tension: the foreign ministers of both countries met in Beijing earlier this month, and now the Saudi king has been invited to Iran. The embassies of both countries also want to reopen in their respective counterparts as soon as possible. Oman, Iraq and, most recently, China in particular had mediated.
Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia have been vying for dominance in the Middle East for decades. The relationship is characterized by phases of tension and relaxation. After Saudi Arabia executed the well-known Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr in a mass execution in early 2016, Iranian demonstrators stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran and partially set it on fire. The government in Riyadh immediately expelled the Iranian diplomats and withdrew their own from Iran. Since then there has been a diplomatic ice age between the two countries. The states have also played out their rivalry in military conflicts in the region in recent years, for example in Yemen or Syria.
The prospect of rapprochement should reduce tensions between the regional powers, which have been enemies for decades, and could lead to major upheavals in the Gulf region. Nevertheless, the question arises as to why the two states are approaching each other now and what they expect from it.
For Iran, economic reasons are likely to play a role. The country is heavily dependent on oil exports. However, international sanctions have largely excluded the Islamic Republic from the market. Iran is in a deep economic crisis: its currency, the rial, has lost 90 percent of its value in the past ten years. The massive month-long protests by the Iranian people last year put the regime under additional pressure. If the relationship with Riyadh eases, the negotiations on the nuclear deal, which have been put on hold, could pick up speed again – which would help the Iranian economy.
Saudi Arabia is also primarily pursuing economic interests, says the political scientist and Saudi Arabia expert Sebastian Sons the star. In order to modernize its own economy, the kingdom is dependent on investments from abroad “and that requires regional stability”. In addition, the rapprochement could de-escalate the Yemen war, which is not only dangerous for Saudi Arabia, but also expensive and damaging the reputation of the kingdom.
A foretaste of this was already apparent last weekend: The Yemeni government, which is supported by Saudi Arabia, and the Shiite Houthi rebels, whose side Iran is on, exchanged almost 900 prisoners. According to the online portal Iran Journal, the Iranian foreign minister promised the UN special envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg “that he would do everything for peace in Yemen” the next day. Grundberg said at a UN Security Council meeting Monday, “I don’t think we’ve seen such a serious opportunity to make progress on ending the conflict in eight years.”
Political scientist and Iran expert Cornelius Adebahr told Stern that Saudi Arabia has recognized that it cannot always rely on US backing when dealing with Iran. Because in 2019, Iranian drones and cruise missiles hit Saudi oil refineries in the Persian Gulf. The USA, then ruled by Donald Trump, did not come to the aid of the attacked kingdom. “This is the point where a rethinking took place in Saudi Arabia,” explains Adebahr. The government in Riyadh has recognized that “you have to get on well with the Iranians or at least find a basis for discussion”.
Sebastian Sons says: “Iran and Saudi Arabia, like many other countries in the region, have similar problems: climate change, terrorism, economic problems”. In the long run you have to work together. “But that doesn’t mean that you trust each other.” It takes a lot of time to restore the trust that has been lost. “It will also be possible to determine whether it will remain a diplomatic approach, which is more of a symbolic character, or whether it will go beyond that.”
Lau Adebahr is particularly keen for the Iranian government to show that it is capable of resolving conflicts in the region itself, says expert Adebahr. “From an Iranian point of view, it is very important that the countries can come to an agreement among themselves and that there are no protective powers,” as the USA is for Israel and, to some extent, also for Saudi Arabia.
Last but not least, the strong internal political pressure against Iran’s “Supreme Leader” Ali Khamenei could have led to a rethinking of the archenemy. Khamenei cannot ignore the slogans people are shouting against him on the streets, writes the journalist and Iran expert Ali Sadrzadeh in the Iran Journal. The government in Riyadh also has no interest in “fundamental change in the neighboring country, as announced under the slogan ‘Woman, life, freedom’,” he adds.
It is difficult to say at the moment what the chances of a lasting rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia are. In any case, Adebahr considers the announced diplomatic rapprochement, including the reopening of the embassies, to be likely. Because the promise of rapprochement by the states was too effective for a retreat. In addition, China is unlikely to be enthusiastic if the announced exchange of ambassadors does not take place. Because the People’s Republic likes its role as a peacemaker. With the mediation, China wants to contribute to security and stability in the Gulf region, announced a spokeswoman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Beijing is “a force for reconciliation, peace and harmony in the Middle East”. Incidentally, China is not only Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s most important trading partner, but is itself interested in avoiding conflicts in the Middle East in order to advance the so-called New Silk Road – President Xi Jinping’s prestige project.
Furthermore, China is able to exert economic pressure if Saudi Arabia or Iran do not live up to the agreement to leave each other alone. However, neither Sons nor Adebahr believe that the People’s Republic is willing to intervene militarily.
“Establishing diplomatic relations simply means that you have more direct channels, that you don’t have to take detours and that you don’t just talk when you meet at a conference in a third country,” says Iran expert Adebahr. One should therefore not expect too much from the approach. “That doesn’t mean that a firework of cooperation will start here, but it will be pragmatic, often with the fist in the pocket.”
Saudi Arabia expert Sons suspects that improved relations between the two countries will lead to fewer armed conflicts in the region. In proxy wars in particular, there is hope for de-escalation. “It won’t necessarily solve the problems in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, but it will at least reduce the influence of external actors like Saudi Arabia and Iran.” Nevertheless, he warns against being naive: “It can be damaged again extremely quickly,” says Sons. The rapprochement is no more than “a little plant for more regional integration”.
Sons and Adebahr agree that the impact of this step on people in the Middle East should not be overestimated either.
“I would describe the impact on the people in the countries as not that great,” says Adebahr. On the Saudi side, people should be less afraid of drone strikes. Above all, the situation of the people in Yemen could improve. Nevertheless, Adebahr makes it clear: “Both governments do not primarily have the interests of society in mind, they are not democratically elected governments committed to the electorate.”
Sons sees it the same way: Saudi Arabia and Iran wanted to give up their confrontational course in favor of a “live and let live” principle, but this should not be confused with a path to more democracy. The rapprochement “is good for the military and regional stability of the region, but we are not talking about a democratic awakening or a change towards more civil society” – on the contrary: If you believe Sons, then the “renaissance of the autocratic systems “, as he calls it, rather strengthened by it. That’s why he has a hard time with the term “stability”. “If you perceive stability as the absence of armed conflict, then you certainly see an improvement from this convergence.” But things look different if you define “stability” in terms of human rights, the protection of minorities and democratic approaches, explains the political scientist. “That’s definitely not what Saudi Arabia and Iran want to achieve with their rapprochement.”
In any case, people in Jerusalem are not happy about the new path taken by the former arch-enemies: “Anyone who makes a pact with Iran is making a pact with misery,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the British broadcaster CNBC. Israel’s ex-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also sharply criticized the rapprochement. The agreement is “a failure of Israeli efforts to build a coalition against Tehran,” he wrote on Twitter. He spoke of a “dangerous development for Israel”.
Israel is Iran’s arch-enemy and has long sought to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia. However, since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has questioned Israel’s right to exist. The analyst Ali Alfoneh wrote on Twitter that it remains to be seen whether Tehran and Riyadh could withstand possible acts of sabotage by Israel. It remains to be seen whether Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s new course will last. For the people in the Middle East, it is at least a glimmer of hope for a little more peace in a region of the world that has been unstable for decades.
Sources: dpa, Iran Journal, CNBC
