Kevin McCarthy is in a bind. In the new US Congress, which meets for the first time on Tuesday, the Republican faction leader wants to secure the presidency of the House of Representatives. After the Conservatives were able to win a narrow majority in the Congress Chamber, the symbolic hammer of the “Speaker of the House” is actually within reach for the 57-year-old. Actually – if it weren’t for a long shadow named Donald Trump.
The ex-president’s influence continues to cut across the entire “Grand Old Party” — as well as the Republican faction in the House of Representatives — dividing it into moderate conservatives and loyal Trump hardliners. A group of the latter has already publicly declared that they will vote against McCarthy, and others may quietly follow.
With just hours before the upcoming election, the Republican faction leader is faced with a dilemma: make further concessions to the far right that make him look weak even before he takes office – or risk a handful of dissenters jeopardizing his leap to the most powerful post in Parliament.
For McCarthy, it is nothing short of the most significant fight of his political career. After all, it is about the third most important post in the United States – after that of the President and Vice President. After the midterm elections, the Republicans control 222 of the 434 seats in the House of Representatives, and McCarthy needs at least 218 to be elected. Since the Democrats will vote against him as a body, he can hardly afford dissenters from his own ranks.
The faction leader has therefore tried to appease his critics in recent weeks with all kinds of concessions – from tightened financing rules intended to make it difficult for the Democrats to govern, to investigations into the FBI, an urgent concern of Trump supporters in the party.
The fact that time is running out showed at the weekend a compromise of desperation. To please the hardliners, McCarthy signaled support for a rule allowing the Speaker of the House to be sawed off at any time with a quick vote. He had resisted this for a long time, lest it soon mean his own premature end of office.
But his accommodation was obviously not enough.
“The times call for a radical departure from the status quo – not a continuation of past and ongoing Republican failures,” positioned a group of nine ultraconservatives in a statement against McCarthy on Sunday. The critics were strengthened by an announcement by the leading conservative “Club for Growth” (“Club of Growth”), which effectively threatened to punish Republicans who campaigned for the faction leader.
When the 118th US Congress meets for the first time in a new constellation on Tuesday afternoon (6 p.m. German time), McCarthy will see the moment of truth. The leader of the group has promised to fight to the bitter end for the speaker’s post, even if it means MEPs have to vote more than once – an option that is now becoming increasingly likely.
If McCarthy fails to secure a majority on Tuesday, more ballots would follow until someone — he or another candidate — finds enough support to prevail.
The case would be a bitter blow for McCarthy and would amount to a small sensation. Exactly one hundred years have passed since a spokesman candidate did not directly achieve the necessary majority: in 1923, nine ballots were needed to determine a chairman. Nothing works until the presidency has been clarified: the Chamber of Congress cannot start its work, nor can the new MPs be sworn in.
McCarthy’s supporters are optimistic that they can secure a majority in the last few meters. “I think we can do it,” Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Jordan told reporters Monday night. He brushed aside possible chaos in the event of multiple ballots with the statement “I believe America will survive”. Added to this is the advantage of the lack of competition. So far, no other Republican has been able to garner more votes.
However, one thing is certain: Even if McCarthy is finally allowed to swing the spokesman’s hammer successfully, the intra-party power struggle will not be over anytime soon. On the contrary, with all the concessions that the faction leader had to make in the run-up to his vote, it shouldn’t get any easier to keep the right wing of Trump under control in the future.
Sources: NY Times, NPR, CNN, Politico, with DPA footage
