Security expert Christian Mölling assumes that the war in Ukraine will last at least another year. Mölling said on Friday in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation”: “Russia cannot lose this war, and Ukraine cannot win it yet.”
Nine months after the Russian attack on the neighboring country, there is “a certain form of standstill in terms of land grabbing”. The mighty river Dnipro is difficult for the Ukrainians to cross. In the Donbass, too, the front is moving very little. However, numerous attacks and counterattacks can be observed. The research director of the German Council on Foreign Relations said the Ukrainians cannot afford to give the Russian army an opportunity to regroup. “I don’t believe in the winter break that many have promised,” he said. Fighting would continue even in difficult conditions. “We also have to keep in mind that this war will last at least another year, so until 2023, 2024.” Western support for Ukraine is crucial.
Mölling accused the federal government of gradually adapting to the reality of the war. “We don’t see that the speed and intensity of the federal government’s decisions have adapted to a war situation,” he criticized. Mölling pointed out the difficulties in maintaining and supplying spare parts for the howitzers delivered to the Ukraine. According to the political scientist, Germany has no plan to support Ukraine in the next six months. On the other hand, he assessed the aid packages to cushion the rise in energy prices in Germany more positively. However, he also expects high burdens in the future. Mölling said, “if we are serious that the defense of the West and not just Ukraine is at stake, then we will have to keep incurring debt.”
Mölling was confident that the western sanctions will hit Russia harder and harder the longer they are in force. Among other things, the Russian leadership has less money to buy weapons. He described the situation of the Russian armed forces as “helpless”. After the initial successes in the spring, they are ultimately on the retreat. Attacks against the infrastructure remain, but even these often have no lasting success.
