Security expert Christian Mölling expects the Ukrainian armed forces to start a spring offensive in the coming weeks. Mölling said on Tuesday in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation” that the Ukrainians had cleverly delayed the fighting “to seize the moment and say: Now it’s our turn and we’re trying to win back areas”. The research director of the German Society for Foreign Relations, on the other hand, was skeptical about the Russian army’s chances of success. “We have to assume that the Russians will soon have reached their culmination point and there will be no more forward movement,” he said. It is understandable that the Russian leadership is open to a ceasefire agreement that freezes the war as it stands. Ukraine, on the other hand, is only counting on negotiations once they have made progress on the ground. “From the Ukrainian point of view, this is a crucial phase,” said Mölling.
The expert expects that China will continue to stand by Russia’s side. State visits like that of China’s President Xi Jinping, who is in Moscow at the moment, are very important for the Russian leadership. He explained that China and Russia are by no means isolated internationally and have had success in forging links with countries in Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia. “The aim of China and also of Russia is to offer an alternative order and push back the Americans,” he said. Russia is therefore also an important partner for China. But China did not want to invade Ukraine. A good year later, the country is facing difficult challenges: “China is in a quandary,” said Mölling. On the one hand, stand by Russia. But it must ask itself whether and how it wants to promote an outcome of the war that Russia could accept. He pointed out that the United States had clearly threatened sanctions if the country were to supply weapons on a large scale. However, China is “still dependent on technology transfer from the West”. According to Mölling, China does not necessarily want a sustainable peace in Ukraine, but an end to the fighting on terms that would leave Putin in office.
