After a turbulent election campaign, the Guatemalans decided on a new president in a runoff. The social democratic surprise candidate Bernardo Arévalo was considered the favourite.

The outsider from the party Movimiento Semilla (Movement Seed) was in the polls well ahead of ex-first lady and three-time presidential candidate Sandra Torres, who is considered a representative of the elite. In a bid to reach a broader constituency, Torres has recently shifted increasingly to the centre-right from the centre-left National Unity of Hope (UNE) party.

“Today we have to vote. We all have the right and the privilege to express our opinion to shape the future of the country,” Arévalo said after voting in the capital, Guatemala City, as the Guatemalan newspaper Prensa Libre reported . The polling stations are scheduled to close at 2 a.m. on Monday (Central European Time), with the first results expected later that night.

Doubts about fair conditions

The electoral process in Guatemala had been marred by attempts by the political elite and the Attorney General’s Office to use legal means to stop the surprise rise of Arévalos (64), which was linked to hopes for change. The European Union had expressed its concern about this. Several candidates had been excluded from the first ballot for controversial reasons.

Opposition and independent experts questioned whether the elections were held under fair conditions. Recognized former corruption investigators in exile and activists spoke of a “pact of the corrupt” – an informal alliance between political, economic, legal and criminal actors to protect their own interests.

In June, Arévalo, who wants to take action against corruption and the erosion of democracy in Guatemala, unexpectedly became the second strongest candidate in the first ballot. Torres landed in first place. Conservative incumbent Alejandro Giammattei was barred from re-election by law after four years in office.

A former diplomat, conflict resolution expert and MP, Arévalo is the son of Guatemala’s first democratically elected President, Juan José Arévalo (1945-1951). His progressive party emerged after the 2015 anti-corruption protests in Guatemala.

According to the newspaper “Prensa Libre”, Torres did not comment on the vote. On the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, the 67-year-old, who would be the first woman to hold the position in Guatemala, wrote that she was “completely committed to change in our country”.

Great dissatisfaction

Thousands of people leave Central America’s most populous country of 17 million people every month, trying to travel to the United States via Mexico in search of a better life. Other important issues for Guatemalans are crime, inflation and unemployment.

According to observers, Arévalo is now likely to win the votes of other voters who are dissatisfied with the current situation in the country. In the polls for Sunday’s second ballot, more than 60 percent of those polled said they wanted to vote for Arévalo.