According to analyzes by western experts, the Ukrainian troops have now also advanced on the bank of the Dnipro River, which was previously controlled by Russian occupiers, in the partially liberated Cherson region. According to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), published geodata and texts by Russian military bloggers show that the Ukrainian armed forces have taken positions on the left or east bank in the Kherson region. However, the extent and goals of these Ukrainian successes, which have been registered for the first time, are unclear.
During a Ukrainian offensive in the fall, the Russian military had completely withdrawn from the region’s capital, Cherson, and parts of the region from the west bank of the Dnipro. The aim was to prevent the Ukrainian troops from advancing to the other side of the river.
The new development would indicate a loss of control by Russian units in the region. Accordingly, the Russian occupiers could only concentrate on cities.
Citing Russian bloggers, who also repeatedly criticize their own military, the ISW experts already see solid supply lines to the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Ukraine had always declared that it would liberate all areas occupied by Russian troops. If the region were conquered from the Cherson region, the path would be clear for the Ukrainian army to the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia.
The ISW experts also assume that the Russian military will not push through with recommendations to Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin to concentrate on defending positions. Instead of concentrating on gathering forces against the background of the planned large-scale Ukrainian offensive, there have been frequent attacks that have resulted in losses and hardly any territorial gains, it said.
“The continued insistence on Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine suggests that the group seeking to freeze the war along the current front lines has not fully convinced Putin of their point of view,” the analysis said.
The ISW experts suspect that this is one of the reasons why the Defense Ministry in Moscow has repeatedly come to terms with the head of the Russian private army, Wagner, in order to use him to get to Putin. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is considered a close confidante of Putin – and a man of open words.
