For months, Russia has been treading water in its war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not appear to be tired of the war. According to the US think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW), the Kremlin wants to make people forget the defeats of its invasion and is therefore playing through three large-scale operations in order to regain the initiative. Accordingly, Putin apparently intends to invest “all available resources in a major conventional war” against Ukraine.
The aim is to end Ukraine’s series of operational successes and thus bring about a turnaround in the war, according to US analysts. Such a strategic action is to take place in the next six months. The US experts believe three scenarios are possible in this context:
1. Offensive in Luhansk
Russia has occupied large parts of the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine since 2014. Complete conquests of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions are still official Russian war goals. According to the ISW, this is “militarily achievable”, albeit “very challenging”. The Ukrainian armed forces have been fighting tirelessly for almost a year now – also in eastern Ukraine. A quick retreat is therefore hardly to be expected.
According to the ISW, an indication that would speak in favor of an attack in Luhansk is the recently increased deployment of troops in the region. In addition, the area is comparatively close to the Russian supply lines. From a purely logistical point of view, an offensive is most likely here, according to the analysts.
2. “Defense operation” and counterattack against Ukraine
Another conceivable scenario is a “defense operation” against an attack by Ukraine planned for spring. Russia could try to use this for itself in order to eliminate “a large part of the mechanized Ukrainian troops” and thus push back the exhausted Ukrainian soldiers with a counter-offensive.
3. Offensive in the north and march on Kyiv
The “most dangerous” operation is a large-scale offensive in northern Ukraine and possibly a renewed attempt to take Kyiv. The ISW sees this scenario as “unlikely but not impossible”. For this attack to be successful, Belarus would have to be part of the planning. As the “Bild” reports, the recently appointed chief of staff Valeri Gerasimov has already sent his deputy to the neighboring country, where 12,000 Russian soldiers are already stationed. This is an indication that command structures are being set up there that would make an offensive possible.
It is questionable whether the Russian army will actually be able to successfully carry out one of these operations in the next six months. But even if they fail or are not carried out at all, the ISW warns against the Kremlin’s long-term war plans. Accordingly, Putin has already commissioned the enlargement of the Russian army and the creation of a new division. The size of the troops should increase from the current 1.35 million to at least 1.5 million soldiers. Ukrainian secret services speculate that the number of troops will even be increased to two million.
This would be made possible by renewed partial mobilization in Russia, through which hundreds of thousands of Russians could be drafted. This would be a long-term expansion of the military. The ISW therefore writes: “Even if the Kremlin is planning a major operation in the next six months, this should not be understood as a last-ditch attempt to bring about a turnaround in the war. Even if the operation were to fail, the Kremlin is ready to wage a long war against the to lead Ukraine.”
Quellen:Institute for the Study of War, Bild.de
