In a setback for China, the people of Taiwan have elected William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party as their new president. The 64-year-old won around 40 percent of the vote in the parliamentary and presidential elections in the East Asian island state.
Taiwan thus opted for the status quo, especially with regard to its relationship with its powerful neighbor China. Lai’s party supports independence for Taiwan, which is why Beijing sees them as separatists. However, the Progress Party (DPP) lost its absolute majority in parliament, which is likely to make future government work more difficult.
“We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we stand on the side of democracy,” Lai said in Taipei that evening.
Tensions with China
The tense relationship with China was a dominant election campaign issue in the country with more than 23 million inhabitants. The Communist Party in Beijing counts Taiwan as part of China’s territory, even though it has never governed the island in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan has had an independent, democratically elected government for decades. That evening, Lai called on China to maintain peace in the strait between the two states. “Global peace depends on peace in the Taiwan Strait,” he said. At the same time, he showed himself ready for cooperation with China.
Lai’s opponents had also campaigned for exchanges with Beijing. However, only 33.49 percent and 26.46 percent of voters voted for Hou Yu-ih of the China-friendly and conservative Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the populist Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). A total of 19.5 million people were called to vote. At around 72 percent, participation was slightly lower than in 2020.
Expert: More tension possible
“Lai’s victory will increase tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and there is an expectation that Beijing will respond by increasing pressure on Taiwan,” foreign and security policy expert at the Merics China Institute in Berlin, Helena Legarda, told the German press agency. Military exercises or coercive trade policy measures are possible. However, the expert considered a war in the strait to be unlikely. Beijing will maintain the current level of pressure to prevent escalation.
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait, an extremely important international trade route, have increased over the years. The People’s Liberation Army now has fighter planes flying into Taiwan’s air defense zone almost every day as a show of force. Already in 2016, China broke off contact with the Taiwanese government after the DPP under Tsai Ing-wen won the presidential election. Beijing also repeatedly threatens to use military force if “reunification” fails. China historically justifies that Taiwan is part of the People’s Republic.
If Taiwan officially declares independence, that would be a reason for Beijing to escalate the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Lai therefore wants to upgrade Taiwan’s defenses and deter China from starting a conflict. In his own words, he does not believe it is necessary to officially declare Taiwan’s independence.
Reaction from Beijing
China sees no reason to change course in relations with the island nation. This election cannot change the general trend toward “inevitable reunification” with the mainland, Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Chen Binhua said in Beijing.
“The results of the two elections show that the Democratic Progressive Party is unable to represent prevailing public opinion,” he said. Taiwan is part of China.
Difficult parliamentary work
According to political expert Wu Rwei-ren of Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, the DPP is now likely to maintain Taiwan’s political and economic alliance with the US. The United States is an ally of the island. US President Joe Biden had assured Taipei of support in the event of a defense. US companies have been supplying Taiwan with weapons for a long time, something Beijing criticizes. The DPP could now have a harder time in parliament after losing its absolute majority. Of the 113 seats, 52 were held by the KMT and 51 by the DPP. The cabinet that appoints Lai as president will therefore have to work with, for example, the TPP, which won eight seats.
The Lai-appointed government is likely to face more domestic resistance, which could slow further engagement with the US camp, Wu said. Lai has already announced that he will also involve representatives from other parties and that he will initially work on political projects where there is a consensus.
Activist: Clear distinction between China and the Communist Party
Lai should also make a clear distinction between China and the Communist Party in the eyes of Wang Dan, an activist and student leader in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests in Beijing. “He should openly support China’s democratization and consider China’s democratization as an important basis for future development on both sides of the Taiwan Strait,” Wang told dpa. The dissident, who now lives in Taiwan, also demanded that the island republic become actively involved in global issues in order to be recognized as a member.
