These are the most important elections of a generation – US politicians always use this formula to invoke their people, but this time there are many indications that it is true. The mood in the United States is heated and interest in the “midterms” is unusually high. What you need to know about the votes on November 8th:
At the federal level, it’s about Congress
The most important decisions are made in the two chambers of the US Congress. Voters choose 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and all 435 representatives in the House of Representatives. Each of the 50 US states has two US senators. Their term of office lasts six years – about a third of them are re-elected every two years. The House of Representatives, on the other hand, is completely reelected every two years. Here, the states appoint MPs according to their population.
Thousands more decisions are made across the states
In addition, there are thousands of other votes. New governors will be appointed in 36 states. It is the most powerful office in a federal state, comparable to a prime minister in Germany. In many states, their own congresses and some other posts are also being redefined – down to sheriffs and school councils, which can also have a great local influence on law enforcement or the subject matter.
There are also many Secretaries of State up for election, and their job often includes directing the elections. Some Republicans standing for election hold the unsubstantiated view that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election. Some of them want to establish laws that would allow election officials to override the count results. Many Democrats therefore fear that the “midterms” will undermine free elections.
Voting is always on a Tuesday in November
The US Congress passed a law in 1845 that elections should always be held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. In the heavily agricultural and religious United States of the 19th century, this day was chosen because it could ensure two things: on the one hand, sowing and harvesting were already over, while the harsh winter had not yet begun, and on the other hand, nobody had to attend a church service -Sunday make the long journey to a polling station. Today there is a lot of criticism that election day is not a public holiday. Democrats in particular believe that this means that many of their supporters do not want to put up with the often long queues at the polling station.
Not all adult US citizens are entitled to vote
In the United States, not everyone over a certain age can vote. Instead, those who want to vote must be entered in a register and also indicate whether they want to be listed as “Democrat”, “Republican” or “Independent”. According to the census, around 252 million Americans over the age of 18 were eligible to vote in 2020, and around 155 million cast a vote – this around 67 percent was a very high figure for the USA.
Important topics: economy, abortion, democracy
Depending on their party preference, voters this year indicate very different issues that are particularly important to them. In a poll conducted by public radio NPR, Republicans said inflation, immigration and abortion were particularly important issues. Democrats named abortion, dealing with the storm on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 and the health system as the most important issues.
A high degree of dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden is also noticeable. According to an average from the most recent polls by the Fivethirtyeight statistics site, just under 42 percent of Americans support his policy, and 53 percent reject it – in earlier midterms such poll numbers were often a reliable indicator of the ruling party’s performance.
The Democrats have better chances in the Senate
Democrats have high hopes of narrowly holding onto the Senate. They currently hold 48 of the 100 seats there, with two independents almost always voting with them. In the event of a tie, the Vice President decides – currently the Democrat Kamala Harris. With this constellation, the Democrats cannot afford to lose even one seat to the Republicans.
Things are looking up for Republicans in the House of Representatives
In the House of Representatives, the Republicans have a much better chance of turning their current deficit of 212 to 220 in their favor. After an interim high for the Democrats shortly after the Supreme Court’s controversial anti-abortion decision, the conservatives now have significantly better cards in the polls. However, their quality is not consistently high in the USA. In the past, institutes have repeatedly made false assumptions about who will cast a vote on election day.
Even a divided congress can make important decisions
In the United States, both the Senate and the House of Representatives are needed to legislate. The founding fathers of the country saw this as a guarantee for compromises and joint decision-making. However, the majority in the smaller chamber of Congress is still important, because the Senate alone decides on the appointment of federal judges and thus on further candidates for the currently extremely conservative Supreme Court.
Fivethirtyeight on polls Extensive information on all candidates and thousands of decisions 2020 census data
