In view of the increasingly unclear situation on the battlefields in Ukraine, the tones in several capitals are becoming more strident. The possibility of a nuclear strike is again being seriously discussed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for a Russian nuclear weapons deployment to be made impossible. Shortly thereafter, Kyiv relativized the “preventive strikes” he mentioned. Nevertheless, Moscow reacted violently and spoke of a call to start World War III. But how close are we really to it? Some important questions and answers:
Why has concern about a nuclear escalation increased?
The background is Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, in which Moscow is increasingly losing control despite the recent annexation of territories. On the one hand, Russia’s leadership has repeatedly stated that it will defend its conquests with “all available means,” which also implies the use of nuclear weapons. On the other side are the statements of the Ukrainian head of state Zelenskyj and US President Joe Biden. One called for preventive measures against a Russian use of nuclear weapons. The other said the world was closer to a nuclear war than it had been since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
What are Russia’s nuclear options in the Ukraine war?
Russia has both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Strategic nuclear weapons could probably only be used if the war in Ukraine escalated into a full-fledged military conflict between Russia and NATO. Tactical nuclear weapons, on the other hand, have smaller warheads and could therefore theoretically be used by Russia for limited use in Ukraine. But here, too, the risk of escalation would be enormous because of the radiation in large areas.
What does Russia’s nuclear doctrine say?
The nuclear doctrine states that Moscow can only use nuclear weapons in response in two cases: either a nuclear attack on Russia, or an attack on Russia with conventional weapons that threatens the very existence of the country. The second point is open to interpretation: from Moscow’s point of view, does the Ukrainian reconquest of the areas annexed by Russia already endanger the country’s existence? Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently indicated that this is not the case.
How likely do experts think such a blow is?
Most experts consider a nuclear strike to be unlikely. Technically, the Russian nuclear forces are equipped for this, at least on paper – there are an estimated 6,000 tactical nuclear warheads and more than 1,000 strategic ones. But the consequences of such an action would also be uncertain for Russia itself. A tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine harbors an incalculable risk of escalation.
At the same time, it is unclear which military goals can be achieved at all. Ukrainian military units are close to the front, so Moscow would also endanger its own troops. The operation would also contaminate the territory that Russia claims.
The use of strategic nuclear weapons, in turn, would probably mean the end of Russia. At the beginning of the war, Moscow TV propagandists toned: “What do we need the world if there is no place for Russia in this world” to indicate that Moscow would not accept defeat in Ukraine. However, many observers believe that Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin is smart enough not to press the self-destruct button. And even in that case, all subordinate officers would have to play along in the chain of command, which is anything but certain after the recent quarrels within the Russian security organs.
How does Ukraine see it?
The danger of Russian nuclear strikes is assessed differently in Ukraine: President Zelenskyj said that Moscow’s nuclear threats should be taken seriously. Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, on the other hand, said in a recent interview: “Where will they use them? On the front line, where there are not only Ukrainian units, but also their own? In the Black Sea? There are three NATO countries there.” At meetings with Western partners, Reznikov emphasized: “Stop fearing Russia. It’s not the second best army in the world, it’s beggars, looters and rapists.”
How would the West react?
In order to make the risk of using nuclear weapons incalculable for Putin, those responsible in NATO and EU countries do not publicly comment on such questions in detail. It is clear that the reaction ultimately depends on what exactly Russia does. Should Putin “merely” have a nuclear weapons test carried out in order to persuade Ukraine to give up its defensive campaign, the West’s reaction would probably be limited to non-military measures such as a diplomatic condemnation and additional sanctions.
In the event of a Russian nuclear attack on large cities like Kyiv, however, direct intervention by NATO cannot be ruled out. If all alliance partners agree, NATO could then try to eliminate the Russian invasion troops in Ukraine militarily. According to information from alliance circles, another option is massive cyber attacks – for example to paralyze critical infrastructure such as the power supply or communications. Such an approach is also considered conceivable if Russia were to use smaller tactical nuclear weapons in a targeted manner against the Ukrainian armed forces.
“What should NATO do? Make it impossible for Russia to use nuclear weapons” – with sentences like this, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on Thursday gave the impression that he was demanding preventive strikes against Russia from NATO. But is such an approach conceivable?
no NATO sees itself as a purely defensive alliance that does not want to become a party to the war under any circumstances – also out of concern for a Third World War. The current strategic concept states very clearly: “NATO does not seek confrontation and does not pose a threat to the Russian Federation.” For this reason, NATO countries have not yet supplied the Ukrainian armed forces with Western battle tanks. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly described Russia’s “nuclear saber-rattling” as irresponsible and dangerous.
How realistic does NATO think the use of nuclear weapons is?
NATO is of the opinion that the use of nuclear weapons would not make any military sense for Russia – above all because of the incalculable consequences. It is also pointed out that in the event of an offensive use of nuclear weapons, the Russians would have to fear that countries such as China and India would also clearly oppose them.
When was the last time the US and Russia faced each other in a nuclear war?
60 years ago – in October 1962 – after the stationing of Soviet medium-range missiles in Cuba, a nuclear escalation in the Cold War of the then superpowers threatened. A few hundred kilometers off its southern coast, the United States faced an immediate threat and reacted with a naval blockade around Cuba – combined with demands that the Soviet Union withdraw the missiles again. Under the leadership of Nikita Khrushchev, Moscow finally agreed. The condition was that the USA did not forcibly overthrow the socialist Cuban government.
