Former US general Ben Hodges has expressed doubts about the will of Western allies to win in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s war of aggression. The year 2024 will be a year of industrial struggle, said the former commander of the US armed forces in Europe at a Bundeswehr symposium on Germany’s new defense plan.
“The Russians are realizing that they can’t take Ukraine down. Ukraine – right now – can’t take Russia down.” There is now a race to see whether Russia or the Western allies can ramp up their industry and produce ammunition more quickly.
“From history we know that war is a test of will and a test of logistics. Undoubtedly, Ukrainians have a superior will,” he said. “Do Berlin, Washington, do we have a will that is superior to that of the Kremlin? At the moment I’m not sure. That’s the biggest danger for us.”
Accept risks and mistakes
Hodges was reminded of having already called for an expansion of German infrastructure – highways, bridges and railway tracks – in 2018 to enable the rapid transport of larger quantities of heavy weapon systems and tanks. Deterrence needs go beyond weapons and soldiers, he said. The necessary logistics must function under the rules of peace if a state uses this as a deterrent and the alliance wants to take these steps before an armed conflict.
There aren’t enough trains for military transportation, Hodges said. “Today there is capacity to carry one and a half armored brigades, I believe. Total. That’s all,” Hodges said. “And all of our plans require moving eight, nine or ten armored brigades in Europe at the same time.”
The defect is not a fault of Deutsche Bahn, but a fault of the government. In order to prevent war, you have to demonstrate that you are ready for it, said Hodges. He encouraged Germany to accept risks and mistakes as it moves forward.
