A Northern Irish expert has little hope that the domestic political paralysis in the British provinces will end anytime soon.
Political scientist Katy Hayward from the University of Belfast told the German Press Agency that even a new election of the regional parliament, which can hardly be prevented, will not solve the stalemate.
According to polls, the strongest parties in both camps – the Catholic-Republican Sinn Fein and the Protestant-unionist DUP – would gain ground. “The election would not change much, except that the parties in the center would come under pressure given the polarization between Sinn Fein and the DUP,” Hayward said. But the basic problem remains.
Sinn Fein wants reunification with Republic of Ireland
In the regional elections in May, Sinn Fein was the first party to become the strongest force in favor of reunification with the EU member Republic of Ireland. However, the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which ended decades of civil war, stipulates that the strongest parties in the religious camps form a joint government. The DUP is demanding an end to the “Northern Ireland Protocol” that Britain and the EU had negotiated in the course of Brexit. Loyalists fear the deal will encourage the area’s secession from London.
October 28 is the deadline by which a government must be formed. Otherwise there will be new elections, which could take place shortly before Christmas. “It won’t be possible to have an agreement by the end of October, even with the best will in the world,” Hayward said. The DUP in particular showed no willingness to compromise. “It is more likely that we will have a choice than that there is no choice,” said the expert.
Hayward: Content issues remain the same, tone more positive
Britain and the EU have resumed talks on the protocol after a long break. The substantive issues remain the same, but the tone is more positive, Hayward said. The prevailing feeling is that there could be an agreement. “But what will make the difference is the prioritization and the willingness on both sides to show flexibility.”
The Northern Ireland Protocol prevented a hard border between the province and the Republic of Ireland after Brexit. That would probably have sparked more violence. Northern Ireland remained a de facto member of the EU internal market. However, a customs border emerged between the territory and the rest of the UK. There were trade problems, for example with food, between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. London is therefore threatening to terminate the internationally binding agreement and is planning a corresponding law. The result would probably be a trade war with the EU.
