Donald Trump would like the past to be the future. And on Tuesday evening at 9 p.m. local time in West Palm Beach, Fla., he invited America into his time capsule. Trump asked the country a question: Do you want to go back to the future? Do you want the drama of 2016 and 2020 to repeat itself? Do you want me back the way I am, just the same as I was?
A majority in the US does not want that. But many want it, so many that they can make Trump the Republican presidential nominee for the third time. His chances for this candidacy are better than those of any other politician, better than those of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
And this despite the fact that even Fox News, the Murdoch broadcaster that was until recently allied with Trump, stopped broadcasting while Trump was speaking. Despite many voices from the Republican Party calling for Trump to renounce. It is said that almost his entire environment wanted to prevent him from running for office. Or asked him to wait. At least until after the Georgia Senate runoff on December 6th.
Trump relied on only one advisor: himself. He stuck to his plan. At his appointment. At primetime TV he stood under the chandeliers in his golf villa Mar-A-Lago and asked: “Are you excited already? I’m getting excited.” It’s “love in the room,” he said. That will have been true. Otherwise not much.
In his world, the Trump world, his candidates did not do badly in the midterm elections, all lies from the media. The only reason things didn’t get any better was that the Americans hadn’t yet understood their bad situation. “They don’t feel it yet. But in 2024 it will be much worse and then people will vote very differently.”
Everything is as before, really everything, only in the aggravated version. Not only does Trump speak the same way he did a few years ago, maybe a little calmer. He has the same issues. He promises the same. What is also similar are the analysts who underestimate him. His support in the party has declined, they say on CNN. Even “Fox” or the “New York Post”, Trump’s old favorite newspaper, keep their distance.
As in 2016, Trump’s candidacy begins with many underestimating him. At the time, the country didn’t take him seriously. Not until he beat Hillary Clinton. As in 2020, those who underestimate him refer to the polls. At the end of a disastrous 2020, Trump missed reelection by 81,000 votes.
His outsider position is even more blatant this time. In fact, a wing has emerged among the Republicans that wants to prevent Trump. But the more candidates appear in the next few days, the more confusing the field becomes, the more everything will revolve around Trump. And Trump just needs to be the candidate with the most votes in the primaries. He can do it.
There is an America that has changed. Republicans are among them. People who can no longer hear Trump’s speeches that are always the same. He bores her. He just looks back at them too much. Trump will have to be careful not to just repeat his 2020 election fraud lie. He also has a new story to tell.
But there are also enough Republicans who want exactly this Trump, the old Trump, this guy who is still so different from all other potential Republican candidates. These people want him for President because he is who he is. They like the crazy. Ron DeSantis looks good next to it. Everyone else is bound to look pale.
The Trump movement has not yet failed. “America’s comeback begins today,” Trump shouted at his golf club yesterday. “You just can’t keep still any longer.” By that he meant himself. But Trump is far from being as isolated as many would like him to be. He promises that part of America that wants to go back in time that that past will come alive again.
We know very well what Trump’s campaign will look like. We have a good idea of what’s in store for the US and the world over the next two years. We know the man. What we don’t know is how much more violence he’ll bring to America as long as he lives.
