The crisis caused by the pandemic has entered a new phase that will require the flexibility to ensure ” a sustainable and equitable recovery “, said Thursday the director general of the IMF, warned that the world ” is not out of the woods yet “. Speaking in a blog a couple of days a virtual meeting of the G20, which is chaired by saudi Arabia, Kristalina Georgieva has plucked his priorities : to maintain, and even extend, the social protection measures, continue to spend public money to stimulate the economy and take advantage of this “opportunity that only comes once in a century” to rebuild a world ” more fair, more green, more sustainable, more intelligent and more resilient “.
Even if some positive signs are emerging, ” we are not out of the woods yet. A second global wave of the disease could lead to new disturbances in the economic activity. Other risks include the value of the distorted asset, price volatility of raw materials, increasing protectionism and political instability “, warns Kristalina Georgieva. But, not wanting to not that Cassandra, she also pointed out ” made decisive progress in the research on vaccines and treatments (that) could boost confidence and economic activity “.
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“The uncertainty remains exceptionally high,”
The economist acknowledges, however, that ” these alternative scenarios highlight how the uncertainty remains exceptionally high.” Large prevent the G20 will meet in a difficult context, the pandemic is continuing to progress, according to the WHO. In the United States, the first economy of the world, new cases of contamination are always in the tens of thousands and the Covid-19 is also a rage in South America. On the other hand, Europe seems to have more clearly defined the fire, just like China or even Japan.
This “crisis is not like the others” is far more severe than expected and the recovery will be slower than hoped, had warned on June 24, the Fund, by posting the revision of its world economic forecasts. For 2020, the IMF predicts a global recession of 4.9 %. It is much worse than the 3 % expected in April, right in the heart of the pandemic, when the Fund had already stressed that it was the worst crisis since the great depression of the 1930s.
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And for some countries, especially in Europe, the contraction of the gross domestic product is dizzying : – 12.5% France – 12.8% for Spain and Italy. In the united States, the GDP is expected to fall by 8% this year, well beyond the 5.9% decline estimated in April. For China, where is gone, the end of 2019, the deadly virus, the Funds table on 1 % growth, far short of the 6.1 percent achieved last year. In 2021, the world GDP is expected to rebound by 5.4 %, if the scenario of the IMF is carried out.
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