The stock markets anticipate the future development of the economy: The Investors buy when they expect companies to higher profits, and sell, as in the current corona crisis, if you expect to be in commercial decline in the results. At this level, the stock market works rationally.
It is obvious that the economy takes strong damage, and it is likely that the world economy slipping into a recession. Against this Background, the assessments of the shares were almost invariably too high, especially since, regardless of the corona of crisis, after almost ten years of a bull market, a severe correction was already displayed.
Corona, the black Swan
Corona is the black Swan that no one had expected. On a deeper level, the stock market, however, is far less rational. Most investors do not behave in their investment investors decide emotional, private, and institutional investors tend to have effort, to detach themselves from the Herd. Until the middle of February the stock markets were irrational: Although the corona crisis and a slowdown in the economy began to emerge, reached the markets records. The investor is oblivious to all the negative news.
Now we have the opposite Situation: Given the flood of daily horror stories to the Virus the most, only the negative News. The realisation is banal: stocks you should buy if you are cheap in the first place and not when high. In practice, investors do the opposite: as Long as the indexes continue to show above, running after the herd, the limitless-seeming gains, and when it goes down, run all of the shares. Therefore, the corona crash is the chance of a Purchase.
Get in, when all of it
the race, but If you have the courage then to enter, when all the race of them, you have good chances to achieve a long-term attractive return. The crucial factor is the investment horizon is not: should Speculate, because no one knows how long it takes for prices to recover really sustainable. A sustainable recovery is likely to occur only if the Virus is contained and a drug comes in grip width.
Who has an investment horizon of ten years or more, which is a prerequisite for stock investments that can position itself in the turbulent stock market phases-effectively. Even if the markets go lower, will Corona be overcome, and over time a counter-movement to use. Because of the re-money of the Central banks rates will remain on spraying for a long very deep. You can twist and turn it as you want: You cannot get around in the future to share. The deep holes in the company’s funds remain, however, and will not be compensated as quickly, therefore, it would be unrealistic to expect a recovery to the old stock market record levels.
tip 1: quality-to buy shares of banks to avoid
it is Important to put right now on quality. Who has the means and the willingness to take risks, to bet on single shares, the Chance to buy deep rates top stocks such as Roche, Nestlé, Novartis, Swiss Re, Zurich and Swiss Life, Sika, Geberit, or Swisscom. Banks should be avoided despite low rates, as these suffer a long time under the low interest rates and increased credit risks. Insurers are likely to be claims of the customer due to Corona faced. Dealing with risks for a reinsurer such as Swiss Re’s core business. All these titles are positioned solid and not likely to pay off in the future attractive dividends, even if dividends increase in the future due to the corona of a crisis, or even decline. Firms with a high debt, you should not touch that. Because of the economic consequences of the corona crisis, companies are more and more bankruptcies.
tip 2: Graded index Fund
Who can only invest small amounts of money, should buy in a staggered manner to benefit from the favourable Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or shares of the index Fund, which are coupled to the SMI, the Euro-Stoxx-50-Index, or the world stock index MSCI World.
tip 3: In the column 3a
opportunities invest to offer the dislocations for all, the savings in pillar 3a for her age. Because the funds often remain for twenty years or more, you have the promise of a attractive time, in a cost-effective passive-run pension Fund to join with an increased proportion of equities, the higher long-term returns. Each and everyone who buys now should be aware that the markets remain turbulent, and only do this if he can sleep in spite of temporary book losses well. Because the corona crisis and the slowdown in economic activity, there are with the global debt mountains, the monetary policy imbalances and geopolitical risks are many additional factors of uncertainty. In the long run of ten and more years, price fluctuations were more limited, and the probability is high that investors will be rewarded for their Investment. So a Crash is insecure, is he in the long run, almost always a Chance to increase long-term assets: In the great dislocations of the history of the assets are destroyed – but new assets created.
Created: 13.03.2020, 19:41 PM
