The world combed gray hair, looks like wrinkles and birthday. Many years. The aging of the population is one of the great social and economic changes that are occurring today on a global scale. No developed country can ignore this unstoppable reality, which scared and excited in equal parts. The life expectancy increases since 1840 at a rate of two and a half years for each decade, to six hours a day, according to James Vaupel, a professor at the Interdisciplinary Center of Population of the University of Southern Denmark. Considered one of the foremost experts in aging, Vaupel note that, in terms of increased life expectancy, “Spain is among the countries that do exceptionally well.”
The forecasts drawn societies that are becoming increasingly long-lived, with the permission of climate change, economic recession and the threat of great wars, and new diseases. The business that emerges for this increased survival is of dimensions stratospheric.
Fasten your seat belts. 16% of the population will be over 65 in 2050 (9% in 2019), according to the UN. In 2018, for the first time in history, this group will exceed those under five years of age, and in 2050 will exceed those under 15. A century ago, there were those who claimed that it was impossible to exceed 65 years of life. They were wrong. “In 2050 the world will have more than 400 million people 80 years of age or older, and 3.2 million centenarians”, remember in the International Center on Aging (Cenie). And in Europe, one out of every three citizens over 65 in 2060, according to the European Commission. Is more, half of girls in europe who were born in 2018 will live more than 100 years.
This increased longevity presents challenges tremendous for public health systems and pension. Two swords of Damocles also to Spain, where those older than 64 years are 19% of the population, according to Eurostat. It is the second OECD country with longer life expectancy at birth (83 years). Only Japan exceeds the Spanish brand. But eye, because in the galician city of Ourense there are already similar rates to the winners. The demographic winter Spanish will trigger the invoice: public spending on pensions, health and long-term care will be equivalent to 27.1% of GDP in 2050, three points more than now, according to projections of the Ministry of Economy to Plan for the Stability 2019-2021. In addition, it is one of the countries most exposed to the pressures of credit linked with aging, according to Moody s.
Ageing world population
percent of population of 60 years or more
5%
35%
2015
2030
northern Europe
Europe
this
America
north
Asia
this
Europe
south
Africa
north
Asia
southeast
America
central
Africa
south
Australia and
New Zealand
America
south
People over 60 years of age
Children of less than 15
3 million
2
1
0
2,1
In 2050 there will be more over 60 than under 15
1950
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
Largest in Spain
life Expectancy
65
65-79 years
2017
80 years
MEN
WOMEN
16 million
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Total
23
Total
19,1
With good
health
With good
health
12,4
12,3
17
26
36
46
56
66
Source: UN, INE, CSIC and CCHS.
THE COUNTRY
Ageing world population
percent of population of 60 years or more
5%
35%
2015
2030
northern Europe
America
north
Europe
this
Europe
south
America
and Caribbean
Asia
this
Africa
north
Asia
southeast
America
central
Africa
south
Australia and
New Zealand
America
south
People over 60 years of age
Children of less than 15
3 million
2
1
0
2,1
In 2050 there will be more over 60 than under 15
1950
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
Largest in Spain
life Expectancy at 65 years of age
2017
65-79 years
80 years
MEN
WOMEN
16 million
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Total
23
Total
19,1
With good
health
With good
health
12,4
12,3
17
26
36
46
56
66
Source: UN, INE, CSIC and CCHS.
THE COUNTRY
Ageing world population
percent of population of 60 years or more
5%
35%
2015
2030
northern Europe
America
north
Europe
this
Europe
south
America
and Caribbean
Asia
this
Africa
north
Asia
southeast
America
central
Africa
south
Australia and
New Zealand
America
south
People over 60 years of age
Children of less than 15
3 million
2
1
0
2,1
In 2050 there will be more over 60 than under 15
1950
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
Largest in Spain
life Expectancy at 65 years of age
2017
65-79 years
80 years old
MEN
WOMEN
16 million
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Total
23
Total
19,1
With good
health
With good
health
12,4
12,3
17
26
36
46
56
66
Source: UN, INE, CSIC and CCHS.
THE COUNTRY
The pump of the longevity it gives vertigo, yes. But, for half a decade not just talking about collapse and the end of the welfare State, but of silver economy, or the economy of the gray. Some experts claim that it is not demonice older and they say that a birthday will be the greatest stimulus for the growth of the GDP. “To overcome aging will be the biggest business in the world. The future is in people with a past,” says Juan Carlos Alcaide, expert in silver economy and marketing that studies aging and its effect on business since 2004.
the seniors made a site, and so relevant, he has not gone free. Consumed goods and services with a value of 3.7 billion euros in the European Union in 2015. Today, if it were a nation, the silver economy would be the third largest economy in the world, behind only the united States and China, according to the report, The Silver Economy (European Commission, Technopolis and Oxford Economics), which takes into account the population older than 50 years. Their spending will grow 5% per year, up to 5.7 trillion in 2025. On that date, will constitute 32% of the EU’s GDP and 38% of employment, with 88 million new jobs.
participation Rate
talent senior
economic Impact
of the ‘economy
gray hair’ in the EU
Population active on
the total age group
(55-64). 2016
ADDED VALUE
GROSS
Sweden
Norway
Germany
Denmark
the Netherlands
United Kingdom
OECD
Spain
Portugal
France
Italy
Poland
79,8
31.5% for the
28,8%
2015
2025
EMPLOYMENT
62,1
37,8%
35,3%
59,2
2015
2025
0%
20
40
60
80
Source: European Commission,
Foundation Transforms and Circle of Entrepreneurs.
THE COUNTRY
participation Rate
talent senior
economic Impact
of the ‘economy
gray hair’ in the EU
active Population over the total
age group (55-64). 2016
ADDED VALUE
GROSS
Sweden
Norway
Germany
Denmark
the Netherlands
United Kingdom
OECD
Spain
Portugal
France
Italy
Poland
79,8
31.5% for the
28,8%
2015
2025
62,1
EMPLOYMENT
59,2
37,8%
35,3%
2015
2025
0%
20
40
60
80
Source: European Commission, F. Transforms, C. Entrepreneurs..
THE COUNTRY
participation Rate
talent senior
economic Impact
of the ‘economy
gray hair’ in the EU
active Population over the total
age group (55-64). 2016
ADDED VALUE
GROSS
Sweden
Norway
Germany
Denmark
the Netherlands
United Kingdom
OECD
Spain
Portugal
France
Italy
Poland
79,8
31.5% for the
28,8%
2015
2025
62,1
EMPLOYMENT
59,2
37,8%
35,3%
2015
2025
0%
20
40
60
80
Source: European Commission, F. Transforms, C. Entrepreneurs..
THE COUNTRY
the apocalyptic vision of longevity, optimism population: living better and longer is an opportunity, as it requires the creation of new businesses that address the needs of seniors and their families, as well as the design of products and services adapted. “This is the revolution that puts the focus on the opportunities of our historical moment,” says Iñaki Ortega, director of Deusto Business School and the author, along with Antonio Huertas, president of Mapfre, the book The revolution of the gray. Thanks to medical and technological advances, has entered a new life stage between 55 and 70 years dubbed as the generation silver. “An extra 15 years that we did not expect to live with gray hair, but with quality,” adds Ortega.
“rising longevity, properly managed, is the baby boom that we seek so desperately, if it’s not better yet: is the greyny boom”, indicates José. A. Herce, phd in Economics and expert in longevity and pensions. So, he says, “is how we will take advantage of the mana longevity and not with bribes for couples to have more children.” And he adds: “it Is more effective to get rid of the tyrannical barrier 65 years of age, breaking the glass ceiling of that age, that to encourage the birth rate for young people will pay the pensions.”
do you Collapse or business?
If something is discussed in the next few years will be how to create wealth with this generation won to the death and who has been baptized as madurescentes, gerontolescentes, viejenials, adultescentes or joviejos. The European Commission has included the development of the economy of the canas as one of the priorities for the enterprises of the region. “Companies whose business is related to aging, have registered an average growth of revenues and profits that has surpassed that of the global market,” he says. The agency distinguishes between active people, fragile and dependent. Because the silver economy has two faces: one that offers products and services related to leisure, entertainment and active ageing; and another directed at people with worse health which require care and healthcare and social assistance.
In either case, will open huge opportunities of business, especially in connected health. But also welfare, food, safety, culture, tourism, leisure, personal transportation and self-contained, sports, fashion, cosmetics, finance and insurance, urban planning and smart homes and home automation. Even in the field of continuous training, “something that will take off gradually, especially if the law favors the expansion of the working age and the compatibility with the board,” notes Paul Antonio Muñoz, professor of Marketing and Market Research at the University of Salamanca.
Because to engage in this revolution it would be necessary to extend the working life. From this point of view, Spain has duties. “The occupancy rate of the over 55 years of age is 53%, the lowest of the developed countries. If it is closer to the 73% that have New Zealand, our GDP would increase by around 15%,” stated Juan Pablo Risk, member of People Advisory Services of EY. And from 60 years, “the rate is scandalously low; comparable to those under 25 years”, says Carlos Bravo, head of public policy and the social protection of CC OO, which is shown as a supporter of access to voluntary, gradual and flexible retirement.
“This happens due to lack of confidence in the talent and senior for the age discrimination, something that is unconstitutional,” says Risk, who also bet for the active retirement (collect the pension and work at the same time). “While today companies, and legislation has been expelled from the labour market to this cohort, have in their hands to save the economy. Think of the revolutionary effects that would include all those millions of souls in our economy,” bet Iñaki Ortega. This revolution of the gray “will allow millions of people of that age to continue working, saving, creating and consuming. It will be possible to be born to new industries and entrepreneurs, many of them seniors, who find opportunities where no one thought that he could have”. In fact, 18% of adults between 50 and 64 years undertake, as compared to 11% of young people ages 18 to 29.
With 56 years, Steve Jobs turned Apple into the company for increased capitalization in the world. Biochemist Margarita Salas was 69 years old the first Spanish woman in being part of the National Academy of Sciences of the united States. Carlos Slim, one of the richest men in the world, it has 79 years, as some of the attendees at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Iñaki Ortega and Antonio Huertas ask: “does Anyone dare to retire or prejubilar to these people?”.
The bomb Spanish
there is No plan b. Even in Spain, where the aging is an unstoppable reality. The population over 65 years will represent 40.2% of the total in 2050. More immediately: “Soon will reach the age of retirement (a concept with a tendency to disappear, anchored in the 65 years since decades ago) over 80% of the baby boomers,” indicated Warden. The first have today 61 years.
Two main reasons underlying this aging population. On the one hand, “the birth rate has been reduced to less than one-third in the last century in Spain,” says Munoz. And is accentuated in some regions by the migratory flows. On the other, an increase in life expectancy, which “has grown in 40 years over the last century,” he adds. In addition, after 65 years, the spaniards have the other 12 with good health, free of disability, according to the INE. Is more, 46% of people between 65 and 74 years of age value their health status as “good”. This aging well is only possible if you are given three circumstances. “They need economic security (having a minimum pension of 700 euros a month), health and social participation. If not, we will have many older patients with dementia, and frailty,” notes María Victoria Zunzunegui, epidemiologist and expert in public policies of health, was principal investigator at the universities of Berkeley and Montreal. “A study in the Uk confirms that people with low income have more disabilities and to develop fragility three and a half years before,” account Zunzunegui.
at this point, many will wonder how they can be las canas the future of the economy when this group tries to defend in the streets, decent pensions, and when 12.8% of pensioners were below the risk-of-poverty (8.871 euros per year for a household with one person; they are usually of widowhood or non-contributory). Without forgetting this reality, the average retirement is 1.141 euros per month —the news is 1.311 eur—. “Even today, approaching over 80% of the last salary. And the unemployed 53-year-old or older are also entitled to an allowance until the age of retirement,” says Ortega. “It is true that there is a need to improve the pay minimal, but also what is the monthly payroll of the pension is 10,000 million euros, which largely go to consumption. The economic impact is very relevant for domestic demand,” explains Carlos Bravo (CC OO).
pensions
November 2019
9.736
10,000 million euros
million euros
8.000
half Board
1.142
6.000
per month
4.000
2.000
0
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Number of pensioners
October 2019
10 million
8.869.496
people
8
6
4
2
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Source: Vittalias (with the data of the Ministry
Employment and Social Security).
THE COUNTRY
pensions
November 2019
9.736
10,000 million euros
millions of euros
8.000
half Board
1.142
6.000
per month
4.000
2.000
0
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Number of pensioners
October 2019
10 million
8.869.496
people
8
6
4
2
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Source: Vittalias (with data from the Ministry of Employment
and Social Security).
THE COUNTRY
pensions
November 2019
Number of pensioners
October 2019
9.736
10 million
10,000 million euros
8.869.496
million euros
people
8
8.000
half Board
1.142
6.000
6
per month
4.000
4
2.000
2
0
0
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Source: Vittalias (with data from the Ministry of Employment and Social Security).
THE COUNTRY
Anything less than 40% of global consumption corresponds to greater than 65 years, according to BNP Paribas-Cetelem. “Since then not all have the financial stability and health required to fully enjoy their retirement years, but it is a population that has the financial ability,” says Pablo Antonio Muñoz. And he adds: “they Consume more than they save and have the time to spend and enjoy”. Retirees and early retirements spent 13.481 euros in 2018, more than the employed (11.889 euros), according to the INE. Without forgetting that the 91% of retirees have a dwelling on the property, calculated in The Caixa. And they hold 60% of the real estate Spanish. This explains the optimism of the demographic.
Consumer groups
of the ‘economy of canas’
average Spending
per person
Europe, 2025
Spain, 2018
Health
Power supply
household Goods
Supplies of the household
Leisure and culture
Average
Alcohol and tobacco
Communications
Services
Restaurants and hotels
Transport
Clothing and footwear
Education
13.482
euros
11.889
Occupied
Retirees
and early retirements
0%
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: European Commission, INE.
THE COUNTRY
Consumer groups
of the ‘economy of canas’
average Spending
per person
Europe, 2025
Spain, 2018
Health
Power supply
household Goods
Supplies of the household
Leisure and culture
Average
Alcohol and tobacco
Communications
Services
Restaurants and hotels
Transport
Clothing and footwear
Education
13.481,56
11.889,45
Retirees
and early retirements
Occupied
0%
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: European Commission, INE.
THE COUNTRY
Consumer groups
of the ‘economy of canas’
average Spending
per person
Europe, 2025
Spain, 2018
Health
Power supply
household Goods
Supplies of the household
Leisure and culture
Average
Alcohol and tobacco
Communications
Services
Restaurants and hotels
Transport
Clothing and footwear
Education
13.481,56
11.889,45
Retirees
and early retirements
Occupied
0%
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: European Commission, INE.
THE COUNTRY
Companies, funds, investors and start-ups begin to fall in the account of the huge reef, that maybe this is their Holy Grail. In the silver economy, the home of the largest will generate multiple business opportunities. One is to convert the brick into annuities or reverse mortgages to supplement pension. Because it is foreseeable that the next retirees lose purchasing power and have no choice but to find ways to finance their old-age, reason, Ortega.
Another niche market is the rehab, since two out of every three dwellings are inaccessible (change of bathtubs by showers, corridors…). In addition, the global market for smart homes will be 55.800 million euros in 2020, indicates the European Commission. In the sector of homes, there is a strong imbalance between supply and demand: a lack of 137,000 175,000 beds. And the prices are prohibitive: cost between 1,800 and 2,500 euros a month, ” says Juan Carlos Alcaide, author of the book the Silver economy. Age 65: the new target. In the near future, it is foreseeable that these homes become centers of connected services. And grow the shelter houses and the senior resorts (with common services and medical care).
european travelers older than 65 years are spend the most.
The concept of active ageing is a safe bet: “The new higher presenting an attitude becoming more positive and active,” says Warden. Some examples. The public aged over 60 years is one of the most important of the gyms. The european travelers older than 65 years are spend the most -66.000 million euros per year, 16% of tourism expenditure in the EU— and the 40% of adventure tourists has more than 50 years.
And in technology, six out of every ten enter all the days in Facebook. They are reducing the digital divide. “Almost 70% of those older than 60 years use the Internet daily”, according to the study Economics of Aging, of Cenie. More things. The Commission expects that the global market for autonomous vehicles to reach 38.500 billion euros in 2025.
The longevity to a number of other social changes. For example, the generalization of the idea of having multiple marriages (in Spain, the links between over 60 years will have a five-fold increase in four decades), according to the INE. It could also be extended the maximum age to get a mortgage, proposed Warden. Maybe 85 years? Today, most banks set the limit at 75 years old.
Finance senior
finances are no exception. The financial sector will have to develop and encourage plans for long-term savings and private pension plans. The Bank Santander has become clear. Announced a few weeks ago the launch of its offer senior, including a variety of financial products and services for over 65 years: a comprehensive insurance for accidents and a insurance of dependence, by which customers will be able to benefit from an annuity of up to 1,500 euros per month. Also, a team of tele-assistance for emergency situations, travel discounts The English Court and offers of renting. It costs nine euros a month.
The aesthetic, cosmetic and anti-ageing treatments are no longer the only priority. The opportunity is tremendous in ortopedias, physical therapy, exoskeletons for walking… And in health. You have to develop “new specialties (including geriatrics), new forms of diagnosis, technology 5G applied to any field of the health, telemedicine and monitoring of people”, says Antonio Abellán, a research professor in the Department of Population of the CSIC.
Because, even though later, the population will be more dependent. And in this Spain suspends, which is the fourth OECD country that allocates less aid dependency, according to the Foundation for Applied Economics Studies (Fedea). “The life expectancy gained means more time in good health, but it is also possible that more time with chronic diseases, multimorbidity and disability,” says Abellán. For this reason, we must not forget the domestic needs such as cleaning, washing, food, as well as the accompaniment. Because, the dependency and loneliness may be the biggest businesses in the world. Two million people over the age of 65 years living alone in Spain. Of those, seven out of every ten are women, with loneliness, chronic, recalls Warden.
There is an opportunity evident in the clothing. Brands such as Ioolot designed shirts with buttons fake that close with velcro for people with difficulty for dressing up. Or the French-And-Vone, with your shoes smart that help to prevent falls through a device in the sole that detects irregular movements. Or Smartcane, a cane, smart sensors with ultrasound to capture the obstacles.
All the sectors will be silver, bet Warden. But it is way. In the supermarkets there are lines of infant food or vegan, but not one aimed at older people. Advertising on tv relegates them: they appear only in 4.3% of the ads. Some brands like L’oréal have already seen the potential. Years ago used larger models, such as Helen Mirren (74 years) or Jane Fonda (81 years). Also Mango or Louis Vuitton. Time will tell. Will be for time.
