The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has tried once again to forecast. Accordingly, on the airlines this year, worldwide revenue could come from 100 billion euros, which would be a decline of almost 20 percent. The expected Minus is almost four times as high as the, which the Association had expected just two weeks ago.
the Economists of the Iata verkalkulierten, in the beginning, it shows: no one knows how deep the slump in the airline and tourism business will be and how long it lasts. Comparisons with previous crises such as the outbreak of the respiratory infection Sars in 2003, are therefore impossible, because of the air traffic in Asia has tripled. Sars is also used as a reference, because at that time, the demand has very quickly recovered, and the thing was over half a year. The industry hopes that it comes back so can be, but this is not secure.
With the decline of world trade, the decline in the airline business.
as bad As it was last seen during the global financial crisis of 2008/2009. Whether this time is now the big bankruptcy wave of small Airlines comes to the Large, such as Lufthansa, Swiss or Air France-KLM hope for a long time, is uncertain, especially since many States have provided financial assistance in view. The further course is also not safe, because Covid-is 19, while the dramatic aspect of the crisis, the sector was already previously, in massive difficulties.
There are three major factors which weigh on the air travel currently: trade disputes, the ban on flights for the Boeing 737 Max and the difficulties in the Airbus production, in addition to the Virus.
First of all, to the trade: There is a direct correlation between the trading volume and the demand in air transport. Therefore, it is not surprising that the international traffic to China has already died down in the autumn of 2019 solid. Although there are signs of relaxation between the US and China, with regard to the trade conflict, but how long this lasts is uncertain. Already before the outbreak of weak global trade is still a burden, when the Virus crisis has been overcome. Because the Airlines need anyway, at present, nothing less than extra planes, you can now better with the failure of the fleet of Boeing 737 Max life – now, after nearly 1000 aircraft.
The demand for large-volume flyers is likely to go back
The currently expected break-ins – 24 per cent fewer passengers in Europe, 23 percent in Asia, 10 per cent less in North America – is expected to but in the case of Boeing, for nervousness concerns. If the flight ban for the first Time marks, from the 14. March, can get off most of the customers from the purchase contracts. Probably is, not that too many will completely cancel, but the number of deliveries is likely to be moved.
Airbus, Too, the meeting will be. For years, also long before the Virus crisis, is weakening the market for long-haul aircraft; Airbus has already decided to cut production of the A330neo family. The same could soon threaten the new A 350, because about 40 percent of the machines will be delivered this year to Asia. And also, many Europeans are likely to have no appetite for additional Large-body jets.
Created: 10.03.2020, 21:50 PM
