Experts at the Jülich Research Center still believe it is possible that Germany will become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045. In order to meet the goals of the Climate Protection Act, extensive measures would have to be implemented in all areas by 2030, explained the director of the Jülich Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis, Detlef Stolten.
The occasion was the presentation of a study entitled “Energy Perspectives 2030”. “What we do in the next seven years is critically important,” he said.
In addition to a strong expansion of wind energy and photovoltaics, energy efficiency must be increased. “The most climate-friendly kilowatt hour is the one that is not used at all,” said study author Felix Kullmann. The study also attributes an important role to heat pumps and building insulation.
Hydrogen and biomass
The researchers predict that demand for hydrogen will increase rapidly from 2035 onwards. “In addition to ramping up domestic electrolysis capacities, Germany must also create opportunities to import hydrogen by then, as more than half of the hydrogen required is imported.”
Another important pillar is biomass, said Kullmann. By 2030, around 14 percent of primary energy consumption would be covered by them. By 2045 it is expected to be 20 percent. “Therefore, the previously untapped potential for biogenic waste and residues must be exploited, and we must begin to increase the area currently used for bioenergy cultivation by 2030.”
Researchers: CO2 storage is essential for climate goals
The scientists are convinced that despite the CO2 savings, it will also be necessary to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. “The goal of greenhouse gas neutrality cannot be achieved without the permanent storage of CO2,” said Stolten. By 2045, residual emissions of more than 70 million tonnes of CO2, which were difficult to avoid, remained. These would have to be offset by so-called negative emissions of the same amount. Suitable storage sites for the extracted CO2 would have to be found by 2030. For comparison: According to the Federal Environment Agency, greenhouse gas emissions in Germany amounted to 746 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2022.
The study “Energy Perspectives 2030” is based on calculations using software called Ethos. According to the research center, it was developed specifically for the analysis of cost-effective strategies and measures to achieve climate goals.
