Investors on the German stock market took new courage on Monday. A mood improvement in the German economy and good news from the troubled US regional banks provided arguments for the optimists on the stock exchange. The leading index Dax closed 1.14 percent higher at 15,127.68 points, making up for most of its losses from before the weekend. The MDax of medium-sized companies recorded an increase of 0.87 percent to 26,714.53 points at the beginning of the week.
Despite the recent turbulence in the banking sector, the Ifo business climate improved surprisingly in March. It is the fifth increase in the economic barometer in a row. “Although the Ifo business climate index is still at levels that are quite consistent with a contraction in the German economy, the good news is that there is no need to fear a significant decline in gross domestic product,” commented Thomas Gitzel, Chief Economist at VP Bank.
Meanwhile, according to a report by the Bloomberg news agency, the US government is considering further support for the First Republic Bank to give it more time to improve its balance sheet. On top of that, a buyer was found for parts of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), whose collapse had triggered the recent stock market turbulence in addition to the serious problems at Credit Suisse.
The supposed banking crisis has so far only turned out to be a storm in a financial teacup, wrote market observer Andreas Lipkow. However, imponderables in the financial sector in particular often result in noticeable economic cooling tendencies. Against this background, Dekabank chief economist Ulrich Kater expects that the previously canceled recession in Germany and the USA will possibly only be postponed until later in the year. The bank stress is likely to continue for a while.
Bank stocks nevertheless recovered across the board at the start of the week. Deutsche Bank took the lead in the Dax with a plus of 6.2 percent, while Commerzbank shares gained 3.8 percent. The price for hedging against payment defaults on Deutsche Bank bonds has recently fallen somewhat. “Deutsche Bank is not the next Credit Suisse,” said the experts at the analysis firm Kepler Cheuvreux, referring to the emergency rescue of the Swiss that suddenly became surprisingly necessary. The most pressing concern at the moment is the commitment to financing US commercial real estate. But it was made very transparent and easy to handle.
Merck KGaA was also part of the leading group in the leading index and grew by 2.6 percent. In the future, the pharmaceutical company will market the cancer drug Bavencio alone and, instead of Pfizer’s current profit sharing, will only pay a license fee on net sales to the US pharmaceutical company from the end of June. Last year, Bavencio pushed Merck’s pharmaceutical division vigorously.
Meanwhile, there was praise from analysts for Heidelberg Materials: The company is one step ahead when it comes to decarbonization in the European building materials industry, wrote the expert Glynis Johnson from Jefferies. As a result, one should also be able to continue to increase profitability more than others. The share certificates rose by 3.2 percent.
Concerns about further falling fertilizer prices in turn pushed the shares of K S to the end of the MDax, they fell by 2.3 percent. In the important fertilizer market of Brazil, farmers are reluctant to buy because grain prices are falling and there are delays in soybean sowing. At the same time, the fertilizer supply and thus the competition among the suppliers is great.
At the top of the SDax small-cap index, Varta’s shares soared by 7.6 percent. The recently weakening battery company had agreed with the banks and its majority owner on a far-reaching restructuring. Shares in the Salzgitter steel group were also in high demand, gaining 6.9 percent after the annual figures were published. It was said on the market that investors were particularly impressed by an encouraging forecast for the year and a surprisingly high dividend.
The EuroStoxx 50, the leading index in the euro zone, closed 0.82 percent higher at 4164.62 points. France’s Cac 40 and Britain’s FTSE 100 both rose 0.9 percent. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial climbed half a percent at the European close.
The euro benefited somewhat from the growing confidence on the financial markets and was last listed at 1.0787 US dollars. The European Central Bank set the reference rate at 1.0773 (Friday: 1.0745) dollars. The dollar thus cost 0.9282 (0.9306) euros.
On the bond market, the current yield rose from 2.02 percent on Friday to 2.18 percent. The Rex pension index fell by 0.59 percent to 126.82 points. The Bund future lost 0.73 percent to 136.74 points.
