Germany’s parcel industry has shrunk for the first time since 2009. According to a study by the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics (Biek) presented in Berlin on Tuesday, 4.15 billion items were sent in Germany last year, around eight percent less than in 2021. “We are struggling with new challenges: We are dealing with inflation and with a reluctance to buy,” said association boss Marten Bosselmann.
Another reason is the high level of comparison: in 2021 the parcel industry had grown strongly because consumers ordered much more online than before during the Corona period. Compared to the pre-Corona year 2019, the volume of shipments is 14 percent larger. The shipments are mainly packages, but also express and courier deliveries. The market leader is Deutsche Post DHL, while competitors include Hermes, DPD and GLS.
Online purchases fell sharply
The parcel industry is divided into different routes: shipments from companies to companies (B2B – business to business), from companies to consumers (B2C – business to consumer) and – more as a niche – from consumers to consumers (C2C). In the B2C segment – i.e. especially online purchases by private individuals – things went downhill particularly sharply. According to the study, shipment volumes here fell by 10.7 percent last year. For B2B, the minus was only 3.8 percent.
For the current year, study author Klaus Esser expects growth of 0.5 to 2.5 percent on the German parcel market. Higher wage settlements and falling energy prices increased consumers’ financial leeway over the course of this year, the expert said. By 2027, he forecasts an increase in the volume of shipments to almost 4.9 billion in Germany, which would be an annual increase of 3.3 percent in this period.
According to the information, almost 260,000 people work in the German CEP sector – i.e. courier and express services as well as parcel companies. That is 50 percent more than ten years ago. While Deutsche Post sends out almost all of its own people, most of its competitors rely on subcontractors. This repeatedly brings them criticism from the Verdi union, which often rates the working conditions at subcontractors as problematic. Association boss Bosselmann, on the other hand, emphasizes that the said subcontractors are German medium-sized companies and their employees “pay decently”.
The study sees Germany’s parcel industry growing again in the coming years, and other industry experts are also convinced of this. “The trend towards e-commerce will continue and boost shipment volumes,” says Kai-Oliver Schocke from the Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences. Last year’s minus was just a “calculation of the special corona effect”.
According to the Biek study, the average revenue of a shipment last year was 6.26 euros and thus 29 cents higher than in 2021 and 45 cents higher than in 2020. Logistics professor Schocke sees this increase as positive. “We have to get away from the free mentality that doesn’t value parcel services,” he says. The more money there is in the system, the better the working conditions could be. In turn, more attractive jobs could alleviate concerns about young talent in the industry.
How heavy can a package be?
As part of the reform of the postal law, the maximum weight of parcels could be lowered from the current 31.5 kilos to 20 kilos – heavier shipments would then come with the forwarding agent and would be more expensive. Federal Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil (SPD) called for such a new regulation some time ago, citing health risks for the parcel deliverers as the reason for this.
Esser, the author of the study, considers this a “sham discussion” because only about one percent of all shipments are heavier than 20 kilos. “A topic is being raised that is not of great importance for the market.” He also pointed out that the parcel companies were working on new technologies to support workers, such as exoskeletons – mechanical support structures for people.
