The slowdown in the labour market observed in 2019 continues. Spain will continue to create employment both in 2020 and in 2021: 261,000 in and 279.000, respectively. Complied with this provision of the temporary employment agency Manpower, these figures would be the lowest since 2014. However, as pointed out by the author of the forecast, the professor of Applied Economics Josep Oliver, Spain should create jobs “at higher rates than the average of the Eurozone”.
Spain has spent years creating rather more employment than in the rest of european countries. In the last five years, has contributed nearly 25% of all new jobs in the euro area and that the total number of employed persons in Spain only represents 12% of the entire labour market of the monetary union.
Forecast of employment growth
Employment in the crisis and recovery
annual average
4%
2,1
2
1,4
1,3
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Forecast
Increase in employment
annual Average
407.000
1.000.000 jobs
500.000
0
-500.000
-1.000.000
-1.500.000
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Forecast
Contribution of employment to growth total
2nd trim. 2014 – 2nd trim. 2019
0%
5
10
15
20
25
Spain
Germany
Italy
France
the Netherlands
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
Belgium
Austria
Slovakia
Finland
Malta
Slovenia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Estonia
Latvia
24,9
Source: ManpowerGroup.
THE COUNTRY
Forecast of employment growth
Employment in the crisis and recovery
annual average
4%
2,1
2
1,4
1,3
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Forecast
Increase in employment
annual Average
407.000
1.000.000 jobs
261,000 in
500.000
0
-500.000
-1.000.000
-1.500.000
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Forecast
Contribution of employment to growth total
2nd trim. 2014 – 2nd trim. 2019
0%
5
10
15
20
25
Spain
Germany
Italy
France
the Netherlands
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
Belgium
Austria
Slovakia
Finland
Malta
Slovenia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Estonia
Latvia
24,9
Source: ManpowerGroup.
THE COUNTRY
Forecast of employment growth
Employment in the crisis and recovery
Contribution to employment
the growth in total
annual average
2nd trim. 2014 – 2nd trim. 2019
4%
0%
5
10
15
20
25
2,1
2
1,4
1,3
Spain
Germany
Italy
France
the Netherlands
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
Belgium
Austria
Slovakia
Finland
Malta
Slovenia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Estonia
Latvia
24,9
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Forecast
Increase in employment
annual Average
407.000
1.000.000 jobs
261,000 in
500.000
279.000
0
-500.000
-1.000.000
-1.500.000
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Forecast
Source: ManpowerGroup.
THE COUNTRY
Both data give an accurate picture of the economic recovery and labour of the past few years has been very vigorous in Spain. Keep up that pace is very difficult in the current context of slowdown and uncertainty, and internal —lack by knowing many details of the economic plans of the new Government— and international. And that is what you come to forecast the latest forecast-known, that Manpower joined theirs. Their numbers point to annual rates of employment growth significantly lower: an increase of 1.3% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021, less than half of the gains achieved in 2015 and 2016.
If you meet this forecast, we can affirm that at some time in the spring or summer of next year Spain will exceed the occupancy level that was reached in 2007, as measured according to the parameters of the economically active population survey, when before the bursting of the housing bubble reached its record high (20.5 million jobs).
however, during the presentation of the study, the president of ManpowerGroup in Spain, Raul, kyle o’donoghue, has warned that this scenario is not exempt of risks. “A substantial modification around the flexibility in hiring or to the Minimum Interprofessional Wage (SMI) will affect the creation of employment, especially in smes and in the services sector, which already accounts for 75% of the total contract,” said karen allen, in a clear reference to the plans announced by the new government to change the labour reform of 2012 and increase the SMI at 60% of the average wage.
The study of the professor of the Autonomous University of Barcelona, Josep Oliver, also shows how it has been changing the composition of employment during the recovery. Between the second quarter of 2014 and the same period of 2019, it has grown to the weight of the wage earners versus the self-employed. The lesser pull of self-employment has fact that, in these five years, this group will spend 17.8% of all the employed persons to 15.5%.
Another of the elements that are seen with clarity is aging: at the beginning of 2014 under the age of 35 years, occupying 27.1% of the jobs; last summer, however, this percentage had dropped to 12.4%.
